Rainy, but No Flooding

As expected, a wet night and day today, but nothing extreme.  Notice we’ve seen less than 1″ of rain since midnight (so far) in the bulk of our viewing area.  Still, I sure got soaked downtown around 1pm during a downpour!

PLOT_Rain_Autoplot_Valley

Where do we go from here?  A nice day Wednesday by December standards.  Just partly cloudy with a chance of a shower here in the metro area.  Temps still around 50 too.

Thursday and Friday we’ll see some great snow in the Cascades, maybe 12-20″ during that period.  And snow levels drop down closer to 2,000′.

Of course that means cool showers here in the lowlands; high temps only in the 40s.

Beyond that, models are definitely not digging the cold upper trough for Friday and Saturday as much.  When a cold trough just continues moving east instead of digging sharply, it keeps the cold air farther north too.  In fact no 12z or 18z model output shows the possibility of snow sticking below 1,500′.  Most of them are just up in the usual 2500-3000′ range.  Translation?  Snow in the lowlands sure won’t happen later this week, and now it looks unlikely much below 2,000′

Beyond that?  More of the same setup mentioned in yesterday’s post.  Ridging just off the West Coast through the foreseeable future.  If the ridge moves slightly farther west (offshore), expect a surge of cold air and lower snow levels.  Right now I don’t see that in the next 7 days.  But stay tuned, at any time things could change.  I notice the 12z ECMWF and GFS ensembles both try to retrograde the big ridge around Day 12-15.   Not all the members show that, but it’s something to watch.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

59 Responses to Rainy, but No Flooding

  1. cgavic says:

    Accuweather is showing colder temps (lows 30/hi 39) above 1kft. Beginning next Wednesday. And staying cool w/intermittent snow through Christmas and beyond.

  2. windy flash flood fog
    precipitation galore
    spotter training done

  3. 00z GFS through FCST HR 180 wasn’t good.. Offshore block throughout, but not at optimal location and not enough amplification, but I’d rather have a ridge than westerlies blasting us with zonal flow…. No chance of cold/snow next 7-8 days, but I see some hints….

  4. W7ENK says:

    Onlt 00l.8 since 9 yesterday night. Sleputy time now, gnig’th

    • runrain says:

      I think you might need that sleep, W7!

    • W7ENK says:

      Haha! :lol: WOW! I don’t even remember typing this… I think I was trying to say I only had 0.08″ of rain since 9pm yesterday (Monday).

      That would be the product of 2 Flexeril + 2 Aleve + barely any sleep the night before… :oops:

  5. alohabb says:

    Hmmm, rained hard earlier and now clearing. 39 here and if we hit freezing tonight could get crazy tomorrow morning

  6. bgb41 says:

    Deadline to enter the December 2012 weather contest will be midnight tonight. There are currently just 23 entrants. Please click below link to enter your guesses for this contest.

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/DEC2012/add.php

  7. 12z ECMWF

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    While not ideal, it is significantly better than the past 2 runs. Key players are the offshore ridge retrogrades to near 150 W and a new, fresh shot of Siberian bitter air moves across the poles heading for Alaska/Yukon. A Southeastern/Eastern US ridge is a good sign too. Trough swinging into the northern plains should lift up into Canada giving way to rising heights over the Great Lakes too. A lot of positive things in the 500mb progression with the only downfall is lack of amplification with offshore ridge/block.

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Finally a temp in the 30s…in December no less.

    Ended up with 0.92″ yesterday and 0.08″ so far today. I’m ready for some drier weather!

  9. bgb41 says:

    12/4/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at ECHO( 683 ft)
    Low: 53 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 25 at Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 19 degrees
    MALHEUR RVR BLO (57/38 ) (3305 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    5.36″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    4.37″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)

  10. W7ENK says:

    I’m closing out my day early, just waiting for the muscle relaxers to knock me out so my leg stops screaming at me. :(

    1.33″ today (midnight to 9pm)

    Still on and off light to moderate rain out there. I’ll pick up the slack tomorrow.

  11. Mat the Salmon Killer says:

    *things lol*

  12. 00z GFS looks quite pathetic with the trough Friday-Sunday….

  13. pdxgeologist says:

    Getting daily downpours here in Panama. Zero chance of an arctic out break though. Not even at hour 360 (I’m still pulling for you guys though)

    • I’ll be in Panama next Friday. What weather should I expect?

    • W7ENK says:

      Warm and muggy, chance of showers.

    • pdxgeologist says:

      Jeremy,

      It’s generally nice in the AM with a southerly breeze (at least at the canal near the Centennial Bridge), then around 11AM to 12 the wind does a 180 and the rain showers start popping up. They can be very sporadic and usually don’t last long, but they dump lots of water fast.

      I’ve been told we are right on the cusp of the “dry season” so it may not rain much while you’re here, especially on the Pacific side. Don’t bring a coat (unless you are heading into the mountains).

      Traffic in Panama City is whack.

      Have a great trip

  14. Mat the Salmon Killer says:

    Mark, you make me laugh sometimes. Funny you mention the high might retrograde in 12-15 days. You know you dont look that far out and are just trying to get a rise out of the usual wishcasters. That is beyond Lala land if you ask me, but we’ll keep our eyes peeled. Wink wink

    • Mat the Salmon Killer says:

      It is almost drink and blog time of the year though. Don’t worry Rob, I’ll keep Josh on line this year. He can be an a$$. But really, love reading your posts and analysis everyday, keep up the good work!

  15. The chant begins….retrograde,retrograde, retrograde……………….

  16. let it snow! says:

    I was hoping the temperatures would go down this weekend, not up.I really wanted to see some action this weekend up at my house. How likely does it look to get some snow or an arctic blast at the end of next week mark?

    • TygrrLilley says:

      Howdy! Based on your s/n, is it safe to guess that you’d be up for a White Christmas? I’ve never had one…and want one DESPERATELY!! *lol* (btw, where is your house? I’m in Vancouver, eastside)

    • let it snow! says:

      I’m out towards Bald peak in western Washington county.

  17. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Saw some light flash flooding around town today. It rained very hard for several hours in my location! We got more than the .8 reported at PDX here.

  18. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Thank you, Mark!

  19. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Hopefully a big surge of cold air and some snow! Sure would be a nice change from the usual rain! :)

    • Oh great, another ham, :) Welcome!!!

    • W7ENK says:

      We’ll eventually take this thing over and start speaking in CW. …. .. …. ..

      _ _ … … _ _ _.. . ._ _ _ _… . _. _._

    • been waaaay too many yrs :) -.-.–.- -.-.–.- -.. . KA7ILQ & 73’s

    • well. in my head it sounded right…but dots are where dashes should be ..dang it all -.-.–.- there that’s better :)

    • eugene in vancouver says:

      CQ CQ CQ de AB7GA QTH west Vancouver K

    • W7ENK says:

      Yeah, WordPress doesn’t seem to handle dits and dahs very well.

      Maybe these will work better?

      −•• • •−− −−••• • −• −•− −•−−•

      I suppose we could just dah dit-dah dit-dah-dit-dit dah-dit-dah dit-dah-dit-dit dit-dit dah-dit-dah dit dah dit-dit-dit-dit dit-dit dit-dit-dit dah-dah-dit-dit-dah-dah

      I haven’t used CW in soooo long, it’s amazing I still remember it… mostly. o_O

      −−••• •••−−

  20. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    First

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