Storm Moving Onshore Tonight; High Winds Stay South

Big story tonight is heavy rain across southwest Oregon and strong wind likely from central Oregon down into the southeast quarter of the state.  Here in the western valleys, some rain, but totals will remain well below 1″. 

As for wind, it appears that models have been correct in not showing a rapidly deepening wave moving up the coastline.  Instead, a surface low is developing (can’t be seen in satellite imagery very well) and will track from SW Oregon up to around Pendleton before sunrise.  That’s very fast movement and there will be quite a rush of southwest wind behind it, but that will only be in the areas mentioned above. 

All we’ll see here is a gusty southwest wind kicking in behind the whole mess the 2nd half of the night.  Maybe gusts 25-35 mph.  I’m pretty confident that we don’t have a surprise windstorm for 2 big reasons:

1.  Satellite imagery is unimpressive, not showing any sudden development.

2. 4 ooz models so far look almost exactly the same.  WRF-GFS, GFS, RPM, & NAM-MM5.

A good example was the 00z MM5-GFS showing a 986 mb. low over Pendleton before sunrise.  A low in this position doesn’t give Portland or the western valleys strong wind (gusts over 40 mph):

slp_15_0000

I’m working right now for Brian MacMillan, so I’ll keep an eye on things of course through the 10pm show.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

130 Responses to Storm Moving Onshore Tonight; High Winds Stay South

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I see you added the snow graphic on the blog!

    Well if Portland isn’t gonna get any, I guess this will satisfy everyone lol

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Again it looks like the strongest low heads south of PDX. Also, it gets nice and cool after the frontal passage and stays that way through the end of the run.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_slp+///3

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Some of that could be more snow for my area around 144-150 hours.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Except thats a high.. not sure maybe I can get something just behind that other front.

  3. Good morning, Blog-a-holics

    Hmmm, is it just me, or does the system for overnight tonight-Tuesday look a heck of a lot more impressive than 12z initialized or forecast. Unfortunately all of the NOAA servers appear to be down meaning I can’t get access to the NWS, NCEP Pacific Surface Display, Buoy/Ship reports, etc to be able to ascertain what the surface pressure may be with this feature.

    However, I can look at the UW 8km WV Loop.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    There’s our system out near 36.6 N, 143 W. Sure looks very healthy to me, at least a strong wave if not perhaps even a closed low as circulation is very evident as is its baroclinic leafing and dry slot. I did check 12z MM5-NAM/WRF and again it just doesn’t initialize this as even a weak wave really which is clearly incorrect. Yeah, this one may give us a wind event. When NOAA servers are working I’ll look at other things.

    • Longview 400 feet says:

      I am looking forward to your analysis today.

    • Mike in Tigard says:

      nope not you. To me this looks more impressive than the storm we had coming our way sat, this might just turn into something.If anything heavy rain and gusty wind

    • czpdx says:

      Rob – are you on Comcast by chance? Seems their DNS isn’t working for NOAA. Try changing your network card’s DNS to Open DNS. Fixed it for me.

    • SnowedIn - North Plains says:

      Don’t know what kind of help this would be, but I know that on the Wunderground Wundermap it’s got several buoy stations on the map. If you click the station icon for the buoy it will tell you the current pressure there.

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

    • Ionosphere says:

      Comcast on the west coast was having trouble resolving weather.gov through their DNS this morning (could have been more but at least that domain). Seems to be resolved now. If you had Comcast for an ISP but used an alternate DNS (like OpenDNS) it was clear sailing.

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Pineapples and breezy to gusty headed our way!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    853 am PST Monday Dec 3 2012

    A stronger storm system is taking shape out along 40n between 140w and 150w. This is to develop into a strong cold front off our coast tonight that will move onshore Tuesday morning. The models continue to advertise possible high wind along the coast late tonight and early Tuesday…especially near beaches and headlands…and will convert to a warning this morning.
    The rain itself could be heavy at times tonight and Tuesday…with
    precipitable waters pushing 1.5 inches feeding into the frontal band from the subtropics. The models take some time to actually finish pushing the frontal band through our forecast area as secondary waves move along the front. The front may not move through our area possibly not until Tuesday night. Our rivers have been running on the higher side after all the rain we have had during the week or so…so we will have to watch these carefully. The Current River forecasts generally stay below flood stage but only minor adjustments could change that. Will also need to watch for possible urban flooding as well.
    The valley will get a little bit of wind with this system on Tuesday
    morning…currently looking at gusts 35 to 40 miles per hour possible. With wet ground…could see some tree damage and local power outages. Kmd

  5. paulbeugene says:

    Quick AM thoughts…

    Sat PM wind event busted.

    As far as I am concerned, ski season has not really started yet…but it will start in earnest later this week…2-3 feet of snow over the course of the four days starting Wednesday, snow levels at pass elevation or below.

    Trough late this weekend/early next week: 850mb temps get to -6…should see some seepage of arctic air toward NE Washington by Dec 10….should have a low level cold air mass develop in eastern Washington/Oregon to get a bit of gorge wind perhaps.

    Don’t see snow down to valley floor with this event…..looks like GFS has peaked its cooling trend with this trough.

    Longer range:
    ESRL PSD ensembles, CFSv2 have trended toward locking cold in AK/NW Canada for another 2 weeks…eastern US Seaboard looks mild. ECMWF long range ensemble had potential arctic outbreak over NW USA around Dec 16. Someone get me a Kamchatka Bomb on rocks….need that to pop up the ridge over AK.

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Snowing on the blog! I can count flakes! (no…not you guys)
    Hahaah!

  7. alohabb says:

    Rod Hill thinks we are looking at possibility of 50 mph wind gusts in Valley tomorrow morning.

  8. Wow Some really intense heavy rain/hail/even a few lighting strikes early this am. Been some time since i last seen rain that heavy around here.

  9. bgb41 says:

    12/2/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 50 at Florence Municip(52 ft) & KB7QWZ Garibaldi(10 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 18 at ANTELOPE (6460 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    DANNER (56/28 ) (4225 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.12″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    2.10″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)

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