Storm Moving Onshore Tonight; High Winds Stay South

December 1, 2012

Big story tonight is heavy rain across southwest Oregon and strong wind likely from central Oregon down into the southeast quarter of the state.  Here in the western valleys, some rain, but totals will remain well below 1″. 

As for wind, it appears that models have been correct in not showing a rapidly deepening wave moving up the coastline.  Instead, a surface low is developing (can’t be seen in satellite imagery very well) and will track from SW Oregon up to around Pendleton before sunrise.  That’s very fast movement and there will be quite a rush of southwest wind behind it, but that will only be in the areas mentioned above. 

All we’ll see here is a gusty southwest wind kicking in behind the whole mess the 2nd half of the night.  Maybe gusts 25-35 mph.  I’m pretty confident that we don’t have a surprise windstorm for 2 big reasons:

1.  Satellite imagery is unimpressive, not showing any sudden development.

2. 4 ooz models so far look almost exactly the same.  WRF-GFS, GFS, RPM, & NAM-MM5.

A good example was the 00z MM5-GFS showing a 986 mb. low over Pendleton before sunrise.  A low in this position doesn’t give Portland or the western valleys strong wind (gusts over 40 mph):

slp_15_0000

I’m working right now for Brian MacMillan, so I’ll keep an eye on things of course through the 10pm show.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


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