The south wind finally punched through to ALL of the metro area the past few hours and it feels like we stepped off the plane on a tropical island…or something along those lines. Look at the 1pm temps…60 in Portland, breaking the record of 58 for the last day of November.
61 in Troutdale; you folks haven’t been above 48 in about a week! Very nice warm southerly wind.
Enjoy it since we’ll go back to normal this evening as rain moves in.
Still tracking the possible strong wind for Sunday morning for someone, but need to look at more maps; I’ll blog about that this evening.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
I think that first front is already here… About a half an hour ago, I was over at a friends’ place and the wind came up so suddenly we thought their awning was going to rip off the back of the house! Then the rain, absolutely coming down in sheets! Lots of standing water, running water, ponding all over the place on my drive home. Even now, it’s still pouring.
Power out in Rock Creek now!
Very windy in Bethany area of NW Portland area. 35 to 40 mph gusts (estimating), lot of overturned garbage cans.
Here is the latest Canadian ensemble run…looks like it has the low farther north than the operational run on a many of its members..now at 36 hours.
Mark: any comments?
I’d say that the forecast of 10-15mph winds may be not reflect reality…at least in the southern half of the Willamette Valley.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=36&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm
Reports of 40+mph gusts in Washington County now….
Can confirm that. Blowing pretty hard here in Rock Creek.
VERY heavy rain moving into the area from the southwest.
http://radblast-aws.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=RTX&brand=wui&num=0&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.248&noclutter=0&t=1354341581&lat=45.51471710&lon=-122.50512695&label=Portland%2C+OR&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=265¢ery=81&transx=-135&transy=-159&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1
Some healthy winds and rain out here in McMinnville, wasn’t expecting it tonight.
KPDX radar isn’t refreshing past 9:19pm
Ahh. Just in time. Here comes some red!
Now 1.07 inch of rain today and no sign of it letting up anytime soon. Looking at the radar the heavy rain train of orange/reddish to the south still yet to move in.
“In the sun at 12:30pm at 60+ degrees felt very warm as I walked out of a store.”
Erik can’t *imagine* that.
It’s the Dome, Luke….
I think we may have cyclogenesis of sorts developing offshore associated with the squall/front.
WV Loop
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
45 N, 130 W obvious circulation intensifying.
Buoys along the Oregon Coast show weak pressure falls….
Hmm. This may be interesting tomorrow
May even be south a bit 43.5 – 44 N. This would be overnight tonight – early Saturday AM.
WRF windgust model suggests 30-40mph gusts especially Salem area… but you have to watch these quickly developing waves of low pressure nearing the Coast…. you never know.
Meanwhile, in Western Oregon…
http://radblast-aws.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=RTX&brand=wui&num=0&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0%3D0%3D0%3D0%3D0%3D0&scale=0.426&noclutter=0&t=1354336095&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=478¢ery=148&transx=78&transy=-92&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1
Moderate to heavy Rain surging inland, but so far seems to be remaining just west of the I-5 corridor.
Severe t-storm watch box off shore to the SW. Weird.
Wondering about the track and if it will still be solid when that bit of organization move inland? And my rain gauge just quit on me! Dang!
Tons of lightning out there, so not surprised.. Would be neat if it held together as it moves onshore and attempts to cross the Coast Range. Wishful thinking…
Nasty!
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning2.jpg
You like the new and improved colors? Someone requested I separate it out by time a bit more.
Why does the lightning offshore seem to never make inland to us in the valley during these cold month storms? I understand that the marine air makes it difficult for the lightning east of us to survive getting here during the summer months, but not sure about the lack of movement from marine (stable) to land during winter months.
Try a Peet Bros. Weather station. I’ve been trouble free for…oh.. one week now. Actually Bro I haven’t have any problems for 5 years or more now. Nice weather station.
*sorry, that could have been worded better. My bad
I really like the color scheme, Mark!
GFS mm5 has 986mb closed low tracking nearly overhead of Eugene. If thing tracks just 50 miles north then we could have ourselves some damaging winds in here (Eugene). As advertised it would be deepening 19mb in 21 hours…..it will be very close
Agreed with that… If it’s a bit further north of that PDX gets it. If the low undergoes cyclogenesis a few hours sooner PDX-EUG gets it. Still some hope remains if you like active weather.
Timing has moved up by 8-10 hours compared to 24 hours ago.
Irony Alert! If this was a frigid air situation the low would be in perfect position for a possible big snow event in PDX. If it moves 100 miles north it’s a possible big wind event for PDX. Amazing the tipping point these things can be at this time of year and going forward the next few months and the air mass we have.
0.75 of rain today here. I take it not much rain down around portland.? We should have over a inch of rain by midnight nothing but solid orange/red to the south
And just for giggles, 60F would be close to a record low in many low elevation parts of the tropics.
I’ll be staying in Lincoln City with the girlfriend tomorrow night. I imagine we’ll see some good winds there.
well…….oh too easy and not the right place!
Enjoy
Ah that will be fun. I think down a ways at Boiler Bay would be fun during a windstorm.
I thought Kent Owen was a guy? How is he your girlfriend?
Nice 6th Grade humor for a few of you guys there! I almost forgot why I barely post here anymore.
I know you are but what am I??
6th grade? Hardly. I’m in this many grade.
Wow Jesse, you moved to Stevenson and your girlfriend went the opposite direction by 3 hours…hmmm.
She lives in Vancouver. We’re visiting the coast together.
Seattle NWS AFD excerpt which pertains to our area in terms of possible wind event/storm….
ANOTHER OCCLUDING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS…MODELS HAVE TAKEN MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL OREGON WITH THE JET AXIS CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE 18Z SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH A 985-990 MB LOW MOVING ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BETWEEN ASTORIA AND FORKS. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
Hmmm, intriguing… Onto 00z tonight which will be very telling.
So, IF a 985-990mb low makes landfall just to the north one thing to keep in mind is many model runs show the low deepens as it tracks inland to the east-northeast… Could make for something interesting.
I’m guessing this is what Mark was referring to.
Be nice if the low tracked over forks/bellingham.
I have been watching this blog for the past couple of years and I would just like to thank all of you for being so helpful. I have only asked 2 questions on this blog about why Ridgefield Wa. never gets any good weather and where could I look to get a better read on our weather. Those were answered by Mark and W7ENK. There is one other person but, I am sorry your name escapes me at the moment. Thank you guys you really explained it for me.
I do have another question. I am kind of confused on why weather.com never gets the weather right for us. They say one thing only for it to go in the opposite direction.
Can anyone tell me why this is? Is there no weather station here in our area?
Thanks in advance and keep up the great work.
Weather.com doesn’t get things right out here because it isn’t the East Coast. They don’t have to talent to forecast our area. Not being cynical. It’s just a fact.
Thank you Josh. I will not be watching that anymore.
18z GFS shows a 6 hour pressure rise of 11mb.
uh…is that good for a windstorm?
that would be a wimpy pressure rise….good windstorms have pressure rises of over 5-6mb/hr
Excerpt from Wolf Read’s article “Storm King”
A rapid rise for northwest locations is typically 0.06-0.15″ an hour, more rarely 0.18-0.30″ an hour. The former category of rises are often seen in the big windstorms, like in November 1981 and December 1995, and the latter category was experienced in many places during the Columbus Day Storm. On February 7, 2002, Eugene received a jump of 0.19″ in just 32 minutes!
For conversion, 1 mb is about 0.03 inch mercury
2mb/hr pressure rise is not all that bad then.
Record Warmth, you should check out Oklahoma there in the mid 70′s all week tell Tuesday. When a cold front pushes through on Tuesday only bring a 20% chance of rain all week, and only dropping the temps into the mid 60′s. I found a place where I want to live
.
I was running errands today and thought the 62 on the car thermometer was in error. But it stayed between 61 and 63 for a couple of hours – whoda thunk!
I haven’t been outside since I got to the office at 6:45a.
Looks windy, but dry. It’s hard to imagine it warm with all these clouds rolling by. I guess I’ll find out in a couple more hours.
What – you’ve never experienced a windy. dry, cloudy day that was warm?
Some dome…
Methinks you’ve misinterpreted what I said. Having not been outside at all today, it’s hard to imagine that it’s actually warm out there considering it’s been chilly for the last week or so, it appears that it’s quite windy outside right now, and it’s very cloudy. Oh, and we’re only hours away from December.
Associations being the silly little things that they are…
One hour before I can bask in record warmth!
Meh, it doesn’t feel all THAT warm out here.
Mayhaps it’s a dry heat?
Feels like fall, actually… right before a BIG storm!
In the sun at 12:30pm at 60+ degrees felt very warm as I walked out of a store.
ENJOYING!!
Hoping for surprise development or more Cyclogenesis than expected with Sunday’s system. It isn’t out of question, but no model seems to show it. Tuesday’s low on 12z ECMWF is a bit interesting though. All eyes to 00z and WV Loop.
18z NAM is a bit more impressive
Agreed, it seems to close off the wave.
Oops, I was busy earlier, I meant to say the 18z GFS, not 18z NAM
Perfect! Panama won’t seem so hot when I get off the plane tomorrow. I’ll be keeping an eye on you weather geeks from afar over the next year. I’m sure as soon as I leave the models will start agreeing on that epic arctic blast. Cheers.
Oh, and just for you Erik…..1st!
5th!!!
And have a safe journey! After a year in the tropics, you probably won’t want to come back here.