Happy Thanksgiving

After a wild start ot the week, much calmer the next few days…good news since I won’t be back at work until Saturday.

Tomorrow is a dry day between Pacific systems, then a cold front sits almost directly over us for about 24 hours from Friday to Saturday morning.  Models are a bit wetter with this too; showing an inch or more rainfall over the western valleys…nice, just what we need.  This won’t be enough to bring flooding back though after 3 days of light or no rain between the new system and Monday’s.

Translation = Rainy all day Friday and a good chunk of Saturday too.

Bad news too for ski areas, the snow level will be at least up at 7,000′ or even higher on Friday and possibly into early Saturday…so ski Thursday or Saturday PM.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

165 Responses to Happy Thanksgiving

  1. snodaze says:

    Mark Nelsen… — would you please put the NCEP GFS model link back in @ markswxlinks ?

  2. I wish the east wind would make up it’s mind! Wind at 6 and 47 degrees, calm wind and 43 at 7. Wind at 8:30 and 47, calm wind now and 39.

  3. I am way too tired for 00z GFS/WRF analysis… good night

    • NIkki Winston says:

      i was looking at the blog post from december 08 man how i would love to have another storm like that! just waiting for the artic air chatter!

    • snodaze says:

      08 will not happen again in your lifetime Nikki… — It was a gift… lol…

    • For anyone that is feeling nostalgic! These are photos from the 2008 snows. I just so happened to be on two weeks vacation at the time. The comparison photos are from the spring.

    • W7ENK says:

      It could. Last winter, PDX was literally 12 miles from a December 2008 redux. It missed us by only 12 miles!! :cry:

    • snodaze says:

      08 was not a one shot wonder though Erik… :-)

    • W7ENK says:

      Nor was last winter’s Snowtastrophe, not North of Scappoose-Woodland. Olympia had roughly 30 inches of snow over the course of several days, Seattle had nearly two weeks of cold and snow, and mostly ice. Portland really got shafted HARD last winter, but it was SO CLOSE!

  4. paulbeugene says:

    So far the 00Z GFS looks more disorganized with the energy rounding the trough….no windstorm for this week it looks on this run

  5. 12km Cross Section..

    EUG and SLE best display the increasing southerlies see on far left.

    Pretty decent and strong above 950mb… Seems to learn towards my idea of a Wind Event on Wednesday perhaps especially central and southern Willamette Valley. Isobars/gradient seems to weaken a bit over time, so SLE-PDX would be a tad less I believe.

    Imagine if there was greater jet support. We would see a Wind Storm on Wednesday/Wednesday Night and maybe another few days later. This first storm just opens the door priming things.

  6. 00z NAM is running…

    Well thus far out to FCST HR 45… 990mb low developing well to the south in the favored “sweet spot” area for classic, southerly trajectory wind storms.

    We’ll have to see how deep this gets as it tracks towards us and if it stalls/weakens or hammers us.

  7. Tina says:

    I have only posted once on this blog just to figure out why Ridgefield Wa. never gets any good weather. I believe pappoose, W7ENK and Mark answered that question for me. I have learned a lot over the years reading this blog. Thank you all for being so insightful.

    If I read into everything correctly, I believe it is safe to say this year I can put up all my Christmas decorations on my lawn with out them blowing away or getting them so soak and wet that I have to by new ones right? Just wondering.

    Thanks in advance!

  8. NE wind blowing out here in BG. Temp was nose diving at 3 PM, but since 4:45 has been on it’s way back up.

    Peak wind of 15 mph so far.

  9. East-northeast wind starting to increase here(east of I-205 very near Gresham)
    As of 5 PM
    PDX-DLS: -3.0mb | 4 PM: -2.4mb | Hourly Change: +0.6mb
    TTD-DLS: -3.2mb | 4 PM: -2.9mb | Hourly Change: +0.3mb
    OTH-GEG: -7.8mb | 4 PM: -6.6mb | Hourly Change: +1.2mb
    Windy night on tap east of I-205.

  10. Medford NWS AFD offers some insight as to what may occur with the coming pattern change.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=AFD&sid=MFR

    Remember, the discussion mainly pertains to the southern Oregon/northern California region, but does mention some important details too.

  11. 18z GFS shows barometric pressure bottoming out around 985mb(29.09 in) over PDX at 18z Sunday. (Probably lower on hi-res model) It then shows a dramatic pressure rise of 8mb over the next 3 hours.

  12. cgavic says:

    From 1,100 ft….sunshine since 1 pm and 42 degs.

  13. paulbeugene says:

    162h on 18z GFS is what I am talking about.

  14. runrain says:

    With this active weather pattern, we will need to keep watch on the watches being issued, to watch for stormy weather that could hit on anybody’s watch. So watch your watch for the issuance of a watch, and watch out!!

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah!
    WHAT DOES THIS MEAN!!!

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/11/triple-rainbow.html

  16. 12z GFS run suggests real active wx pattern developing by Thursday, extending indefinitely, wind/heavy precip being the most likely outstanding features. Make sure to put those batteries in the weather stations for backup! No arctic weather in the 10 day time frame, but lots of cold developing yukon. Arctic weather looming mid december? Possibly? wxrisk.com points out that we are in a pretty stable 3 wave pattern with omega block ridge over Bering sea, ridge SE USA, trough W Canada/Alaska. The only options for unloading the canadian cold would be gulf of Alaska (driving active stormy pattern PNW), or down south to PNW (arctic). I put my Christmas lights up this wknd. Wouldn’t it be nice to seem them in the snow (assuming windstorm doesn’t blow them away)?

  17. 12z MM5-NAM
    925mb/SLP model
    1:00 PM Tuesday
    *A 998mb wave begin to develop near 36 N, 135

    4:00 AM Wednesday

    *Wave develops further strengthening into a surface low as is seen at 41. 2 N, 129.4 W. It is deepening nicely with a compact circulation. This could be quite a big wind storm depending on exit jet strength, depth of low, track, and forward momentum.

    I wish the NAM ran 12 more hours to see what is this low is to deepen further or where it would track. This is the exact scenario I talked about with my 4:30 AM analysis earlier of a classic southwesterly track. We need to watch models closely. 12 GFS is running now and I’m eager to see what it offers as well as the WRF in better detail.

    • PaulO says:

      Waiting for an update later, thanks Rob!

    • paulbeugene says:

      It is not that low that I am concerned about…that one likely will be filling and weakening as it heads N.
      The following 2 short waves/disturbances are the ones to watch

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      @ paulb

      I’m in.
      I’m gonna go ahead and issue a Significant Weather Event Watch for all weather Geeks to be on watch for your High Wind Watch Watch upgrading to a High Wind Watch!

    • alohabb says:

      Hmm, this is looking to be a very active week!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Clearly, the watches Rob and paulb mention here, will need to be closely watched as well. Hahaah!

    • Yeah, NAM didn’t run far enough out to show those…. GFS/WRF does… Pieces are coming together, but not all there yet. Seeing the parent low so far south gives strong southwesterly flow and wave development much further south than is typical.

    • First storm the exit jet punching along the Coast is not strong enough, however Thursday-beyond it is much stronger upwards of 110-140kts…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Think how crazy it’ll get when someday maps do suddenly show a classic track and 955 low near Astoria. Back in 1995 there was no blog, Facebook, and barely any internet. Or at least hardly anyone used it back then regularly.

    • It would be nuts… I don’t know about a low undergoing Bombogensis like that, but I could see something comparable to a 1981 or 2006 wind storm. I can envision in the coming days the WRF spitting out a 970-974mb low moving up the Willamette Valley or up the Oregon Coast.

  18. First freeze at Tallahassee, Florida…

    Pretty sad when Florida beats out PDX.

    http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTLH.html

  19. 4:31 AM Update

    It looks like what could be the strongest east wind of this Fall Season may be on the way Monday morning. A 1024mb(roughly) high settling over the Columbia Basin/eastern Washington. A bit chilly low-level air mass with temporary cool pool.
    7:00 AM Monday

    Decent PDX-DLS perhaps -7.8 to -8.8mb peak.

    4km Cross Section
    PDX – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/kpdx.th.gif
    35-40kts at 950mb
    TTD – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/kttd.th.gif
    35-40kts at 975mb
    Quite a shallow easterly wind field aloft. Nothing staggering and not to stronger Winter levels we’re accustomed to seeing, but it should get everyone’s attention east of I-205.

    The other story is what looks like a good Windstorm pattern coming with a the parent low further south than usual(near/south of 50 N), a deep trough in close proximity to the Coast, and perhaps a classic scenario with a wave/area of low pressure developing in a southwesterly trajectory up around the base of the trough. I’m seeing this signal on the GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF. I wonder what today’s 12z suite of models show….

  20. bgb41 says:

    11/24/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:63 at MCDERMITT 26N(4464 ft)
    Low: 53 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 20 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 36 degrees
    Lorella (59/23 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.61″ at SIGNAL TREE(3294ft)

  21. W7ENK says:

    HAH!!! Would ya look at that…

    Troutdale reported snow this evening!
    Yeah, that’ll get retracted. o_O

  22. W7ENK says:

    It’s über foggy under the dome tonight, visibility easily down to 1/4 mile! I wonder why a Dense Fog Advisory hasn’t been issued yet?

  23. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Very dense fog here in BG and a temp of 39. Looks like a hard freeze tomorrow night.

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