Travel Forecast: Not Bad For Thanksgiving

If you’re headed out on the road between Wednesday and Sunday, it doesn’t look too bad.  Just watch out in the Cascades, mainly Wednesday morning, evening, and again briefly Thursday morning.

In the short term, a burst of wind and rain coming up around midnight-3am in the metro area as another small system quickly scoots on through.  A surface low pressure area is offshore and headed to about Olympia by 2am.  We get the south wind after it passes by.  Peak gusts likely the next 3 hours around 50 mph on the Coast and 30-40 mph here in the Valleys.  Likely real up/down gusty wind too since we’ve got heavy showers coming through at the same time.

At 10:15pm lots of lightning just moving onshore between Florence and Lincoln City. 

Radar coverage is just about the worst of the entire USA coastline in this area (especially bad now since NOAA is headquartered in Newport), so the radar returns don’t look very impressive.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Travel Forecast: Not Bad For Thanksgiving

  1. Want snow soon says:

    Do you see any sign of cold weather or snow in the long range models yet?

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Gotta like the look from Timberline this eve.
    http://www.fsvisimages.com/images/photos-large/moho2_large.jpg

  3. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Erik-

    Thanks again for posting the OMSI weather meeting. I was unable to get that Saturday off this year, so again, GREATLY appreciated!!! Gonna watch that tomorrow morning while the turkey’s cooking! Have a great Thanksgiving…

    • W7ENK says:

      Not a problem, it’s my pleasure!

      The link works okay? All the videos are there, and in the right order?

    • Agreed, thanks! But I’m sure you were paid big bucks ;)
      Planning on checking it out after T-Day.

    • W7ENK says:

      Big bucks, yes. No?

      I can neither confirm nor deny the exchange of any money, goods or services as a means of compensation for any money, goods or services previously rendered, published, produced or otherwise provided, under protection of the Fifth Amendment of the United States Constitution.

  4. *BoringOregon* says:

    Guezzz, had a huge hail storm went by. That was crazy got a video of it post it soon.

  5. Kyle says:

    Funny after I typed that I looked at spaceweather.com and there is another solar wind buffeting the earth and I believe these events are *blocking* cold air from heading south.

    This is almost a carbon copy of last winter where we had some storms in November and mild weather with cold air blocking but not as much ridge to it and different timing to storms.

    This particular event is not as strong as previous solar winds but still enough to give beautiful auroras as below indicates.

    Check out these real time viewer pictures from viewers like you! http://spaceweather.com/gallery/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=73864&PHPSESSID=ni96rf3bufnqcrd083r369hof3

    I like the Anchorage one a lot.

  6. Kyle says:

    I don’t think any cold records will fall but the low temps we get if it remains clear will be pretty impressive and all without any artic airmass to support it.

    We will also get a few over running events from weak systems giving us 1-3 inches of valley snow once towards New Years and the other towards the second to last week and ONLY if the inversion pattern comes to pass.

    Sorry guys but as the upper atmosphere continues to recover from the solar winds we are going to be bouncing around a lot between ridge and trough.

    I seriously doubt we get a Rex Block unless its extremely short lived.

  7. Kyle says:

    I don’t know why but I have a gut feeling for cold weather this isn’t our year and we will turn out to be at or slightly below normal in December-January unless January we have a major inversion to bring *fake cold* with multiple highs below freezing.

    I don’t know why but I also have a gut feeling we are in for a major inversion right after New Year to give us a chance for a lot of fake cold and offshore flow to add to the boot.

    January is going to be a major east wind month.

    • Kyle you”re a little off. In dec we will have a pineapple express pulling cold air from the north at the same time moisture from the south with widespread two feet plus snow totals from about Eugene to bellingham .The one place that will be spared will be over the milwaukee doom should only get a cold rain.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hey, that sounds exactly like the last two years! No literally, it does… o_O

  8. W7ENK says:

    WOW! :shock:

    Looks like the end of the world toward home…

    http://i46.tinypic.com/2s0xxrs.jpg

    Some nice mammoomies right overhead, too!

  9. W7ENK says:

    For those of you who weren’t able to make it to OMSI last weekend for the 20th Annual Oregon AMS Winter Weather Forecast Conference…

    2 hr 3 min 17 sec in total — Happy watching! :)

  10. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Hailing pretty hard here in Oak Grove now.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Mark’s 2nd annual video address to us bloggers:

    I guess we’d all better behave! :mrgreen:

  12. octballcoach says:

    Thunder in Oak Grove….twice!

  13. runrain says:

    Distant thunder in Happy Valley.

  14. paulbeugene says:

    Nice to see the pass cams this morning with decent snows.
    Not much to talk about…no big ridges over our region in the next two weeks…
    General trend: continued cold over interior AK and Canada, with cool to cold period for Great Lakes, NE USA with tendency for lake effect snows but no blockbuster storms for the Beltway..
    Continues to be an exceptionally cold November for Fairbanks…they are around -8F for montly departure from normal. There is essentially zero correlation between cold Novembers in Alaska and exceptionally cold Decembers in the Pac NW, with only example being Dec 1990 that I could find…but that was a memorably cold month.
    Next few weeks will probably have variably stormy weather with enhanced precipitation….with variable snow levels dropping with time as would be expected climatologically…which will be good to establish a good base for skiing as we head into midwinter. No arctic blasts in sight. Still have to keep an eye out for windstorms. As we get an accumulating snowpack at higher elevations the flooding risk increases with time if there are any high precipitation events….i.e. pineapples.

    • Brad says:

      Kinda..but meh.

    • David B. says:

      Well, it’s not even officially winter yet, so I’d have to say it’s way too early to get edgy about there being no lowland snow on the horizon.

    • Kyle says:

      Now that I saw the solar winds I am not the least bit surprised at the timing.

      Last winter had a good potential but solar winds ruined the GOA ridge.

  15. 12z GFS
    ….
    Nothing to see here….

  16. longbeachrob says:

    I see my skylight decided to leak. Not bad, but enough that I am going up on the roof today. Velux is a good skylight, but they have been up since 1997 and I think the moss has helped it a bit. The one on the other side of the house had a nail rust away and fall out such that the rain came though the little hole. Senco roofing gun nail plating and the aluminum skylight don’t mix I guess.

    • Are you on the coast?
      They include SS nails these days don’t they? I’ve installed probably over 200 units in my 30+ years in construction. Never a problem with the unit. Usually an issue with installation or maintenance. I did have a problem once when we put in some power driven models using rain sensors. When the rain sensor was slow to react….. :(

    • longbeachrob says:

      It was some caulking that I used on the surface on the glass to the metal around the sides (not the flashing that you slip under it). I don’t remember why I faced caulked it in the first place. I used some caulking I don’t normally use a few years ago and it pulled away in the lower right corner.

      The nail I was talking about on the other side was in the roofing and hadn’t come with the skylight. I used Sikaflex this time. LOL

  17. 12z gfs operational long range has blocking ridge E N.A. with persistent building cold in Yukon. Hopefully gfs ensembles and more importantly ECMWF trend in this direction (assuming you like cold).

  18. W7ENK says:

    Hmmm, I only had 0.22″ of rain overnight, and I don’t think we had much in the way of wind. I did wake up at 3:45am for some reason, but it sounded like it was just sprinkling at that time.

    It might have been the weird dream I had? –

    Earthquake and tsunami in South Puget Sound: West Olympia at my my family’s house right on the beach, a bright warm sunny summer day, we were kids, swimming in the water, diving off the bulkhead, trying to see who could touch the bottom and come back up with a rock or some other proof, when suddenly the concrete stairs leading up from the beach broke away and slid off the bank down into the water, right before the tide seemingly went out so fast you could watch it, the bay completely drained of water in only about a minute or two. My uncle was frantically yelling at us to get up off the beach, come up to the patio, and then the tide came rushing back in so quickly it topped our bulkhead wall and flooded out the bottom floor of our neighbors’ house. Docks and boats broke loose and were swirling around together, crashing into trees as the water flowed back into the woods. I could hear trees cracking, everything thumping and clunking together, breaking glass, the sound of violently rushing water… and the birds, going crazy the whole time, even before the stairs slid away — seagulls, crows, herons, pipers, even a Bald Eagle — making such a panicked racket overhead!

    There, I told my bad dream. Now it shouldn’t come true, right?

    • longbeachrob says:

      I had a dream where I could hear a loud explosion to the North, and when I looked Mt. Rainier had erupted. Last think I remember is that I was laughing??? What does that mean? LOL

  19. Yet another breezy system, wind gust on my station to 45 mph earlier this AM (3rd windy event in 3 days, 46mph for the first, 44mph for the second, now 45 with the third).

  20. Pretty intense rain this am .50 rain along with gusty winds i suspect are being caused by the intense line of showers moving bye.Pretty chilly out their this am also temp only 40.

  21. JJ97222 says:

    Great news today I will leaving the rainy climate here for the Lone Star state. I have accepted an offer to get me and family out of here, again after 52 years of rain here I will see the sun constanty for a change. as I sit here looking at my gutters over flowing through my sliding glass door glogged with tree debris I can honestly say bye bye to more of this shortly and soon will be looking at an in ground pool that you can use in November. I use to like this weather but as I get older it is no fun anymore. Just dealing wet leaves and the mess till late December is one thing but waiting for sping and summer to get here is the worst.

    • If I could move to any climate without other concerns like jobs and social culture being a factor, I’d pick the valleys of southwestern Oregon. You get most of the features of a true Mediterranean climate, but with cool nights even in summer and enough winter chill to still see occasional snow.

    • runrain says:

      Texas is one bee-utiful state! The mountains, trees, pristine lakes (oh, wait…).

      I did enjoy watching Walker, Texas Ranger back in the day.

    • shawnpippin says:

      After a few years you’ll start to miss the drippy rain. Not to mention all the beautiful green. Everyone I know who lives in a desert climate and come out her to visit say they never want to go back to that dull brown. So I’m sure given time you’ll start to miss the weather you’ve grown to know.

    • alohabb says:

      Good luck, I wanna move to Hawaii as soon as I can because I don’t like the rain or cold anymore.

    • Texas is a BIG state. Which part are heading for?

    • longbeachrob says:

      My wife grew up near Desotto, Tx. I hear there is just about any climate you want in Texas; just have to pick the area and drive to work. My wife always laughed at me for in Texas you get used to driving a few hours to anything… Keep in touch in case I want to move to where the political climate fits me better.

    • David B. says:

      Parts of Texas are quite wet, actually. Houston has a higher annual average rainfall than Seattle or Portland — and is in a hurricane-prone area, to boot. Plus the humidity is almost always high.

    • Ryan (Van Mall) says:

      So you hate the weather of the PNW; why the hell did you live here in the first place?

      I get tired of seeing people complain about our weather when they no darn good and well what our climate is like.

      Don’t let the door hit you on the arse on the way out of the state.

    • A bit harsh, don’t ya think…. JJ, a friend of mine lives in DeSoto. Get prepared for brutal, relentless heat, and severe/dangerous t-storms…

  22. Recent WV/IR loop places the low about due west of Astoria/Seaside, OR. Looking at buoy reports off the northern Oregon and central Washington Coast I would place the low at around 999mb(as 00z MM5-NAM showed)
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12
    It does look to be deepening a bit and move onshore near Ocean Shores/Forks, WA.

  23. Check out the hourly pressure change between Portland and Eugene.
    As of 12:00 AM
    PDX-EUG: -3.5mb | Last hour: -0.2mb | Hourly Increase: 3.3mb
    Very impressive and should lead to breezy – gusty conditions soon.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KPDX+KEUG

    • Kyle says:

      Already hit here! Trees whipped around like crazy for 10 mins with a squall line blowing thru. So much rain Dad said it looked like fog thru the lights.

      I had 3 inches of rain 8PM Sun to 8PM Mon and 1.5 inches in the same time slot today. or is it yesterday now?

      Looks like plenty of more is on da way!

      This is a LOT more impressive rainfall wise then anything every produced in October.

      I’ve not seen so much rain here since the year 1996-97 we moved up here from the mountains of Northern California where we haven’t seen the sun hardly at all that winter here in Oregon after the move.

    • alohabb says:

      Are you still going to school Kyle ?

    • Kyle says:

      Don’t make fun of me.

    • W7ENK says:

      I think he was asking a legitimate question, Kyle. Probably wondering why you were still up at Midnight-Oh-Thirty on a school night?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Why he’s up at Midnight-Oh-Thirty, is his business.

    • W7ENK says:

      I absolutely agree.

  24. bgb41 says:

    11/20/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 53 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 25 at Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft ) & Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 24 degrees
    LAKE OWHEE AND O (66/42 ) (2400 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    5.12″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    4.40″ at KING MOUNTAIN(4000ft)
    4.19″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    3.79″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)

  25. longbeachrob says:

    My barometer readings tonight. I am about half way up the Long Beach Peninsula
    11:05 PM 999.7
    11:00 PM 999.8
    10:30 PM 1001.0
    10:00 PM 1001.6
    9:00 PM 1002.7

    Have to see how close to me the Low gets

  26. Joe says:

    This state needs to push for a new radar centered on the coast somewhere between Newport and Florence on one of the hills there along the coastline.

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