Annual Winter Weather Meeting 2 Weeks Away

20th Annual Oregon AMS “Winter Weather Forecast Conference” is coming to Portland Saturday, November 17th at 10 AM. 
 
Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again descend on the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) to give their prognostications for the upcoming winter. Will El Nino arrive, bringing with it warmer and drier weather or will it remain at bay for what could be a “wild-weather-ride” this winter? Don’t miss this ever-popular free public meeting. A $300 Davis home weather station will also be raffled off at the end of the meeting. For all the formal meeting details, please see below or click: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
 
Steve Pierce - Oregon AMS President
 
 
WHAT: 20th Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference
WHEN: Saturday, November 17th 2012 @ 10 AM.
WHERE: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), main auditorium, 1945 S.E. Water Ave. in Portland. For driving directions to OMSI click: http://tinyurl.com/6rrz8em.
MEETING & PARKING COST: This meeting is free and open to all ages of the general public. Free parking in all OMSI parking lots.
OVERNIGHT ACCOMMODATIONS: For overnight accommodations in Portland, please see: http://tinyurl.com/7boqrsf
AGENDA: Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again give their prognostications for the upcoming winter, as well as a look back at last winter.  
 
Formal Conference Rundown
 
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Steve Pierce, Oregon AMS President
 
OMSI Update
Jim Todd, OMSI Planetarium Manager
 
Review of 2011-2012 Weather
Mark Nelsen, Chief Meteorologist – KPTV/KPDX
 
2012/13 Winter Weather Forecasts
Clinton Rockey – National Weather Service Portland
Kyle Dittmer, Hydrologist/Meteorologist – CRITFC
George Taylor, Climatologist/Meteorologist – Applied Climate Services
Jim Little, Meteorologist – Oregon Department of Forestry              
 
Special Presentation
Jesse Nicola – Mount Hood Ski Bowl
“Using NOAA XML data to design a ski resort forecast”
 
Audience Question/Answer Session with Forecasters
 
Raffle – $300 Davis Home Weather Station & More
 
Please note — OMSI’s main auditorium will hold approximately 300 guests. Please arrive early in order to be assured a seat. Once standing room capacity has been met, the only additional viewing area will be from the hallway outside. For complete meeting details, including overnight accommodations in and around Portland, please see the Oregon AMS web site at: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/.
 
Contact: Oregon AMS President, Steve Pierce at: stevejpierce@comcast.net or 503-504-2075.
Oregon AMS web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon
 
Who is the Oregon AMS? The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded in 1947 and is the single largest local chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in the country, with 170 members. The national headquarters of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has approximately 130 active local chapters across the country. The Oregon AMS chapter normally hosts eight monthly meetings from September to June that are free and open to all ages of the general public. The Oregon AMS welcomes the public to become chapter members for just $10 per year. The Oregon AMS chapter mission statement reads, “The purpose of this society shall be to advance professional ideals in the science of meteorology and to promote the development, exchange, and application of meteorological knowledge.” Our meetings are always found on our web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon
 

44 Responses to Annual Winter Weather Meeting 2 Weeks Away

  1. Regarding the Nor’easter Wednesday-Friday

    Some good news. 00z Canadian, UKMET, GFS are all further offshore with the Nor’easter Wednesday-Friday and would produce just a glancing blow. 00z NAM is an outlier(as of now) tracks a bit closer, but it too is slightly further offshore skirting just east of Long Island/Nantucket. It shows the most significant impacts in terms of Rain(Possible snow?) and Wind. Awaiting 00z ECMWF….

  2. Trend looking to be much colder starting end of next week esp heading towards Thanksgiving. Starting 13 may be start talking snow i know you can”t put much stake in the forcast that far out but least things looking more exciting starting end of the work week. WWUS86 KSEW 052316
    SPSSEW

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    316 PM PST MON NOV 5 2012

    WAZ001-503>519-060730-
    SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
    EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
    EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-
    ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-
    OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
    WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
    WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
    WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
    316 PM PST MON NOV 5 2012

    …MUCH COOLER LATER THIS WEEK WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS…

    A BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED LATER
    THIS WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
    FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND LATE TUESDAY.

    SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET FROM AROUND
    9000 FEET TUESDAY TO NEAR 3000 FEET WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING
    TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
    WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
    MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT…A FEW INCHES OR SO IN ALL.

    YET FOR THOSE IN OR PLANNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS LATER
    THIS WEEK…THE FALLING SNOW LEVELS AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL
    BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE. BE PREPARED FOR MORE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS
    STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

    IN THE LOWLANDS…TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE MILD FOR EARLY
    NOVEMBER. DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL ALSO DROP BELOW
    SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

    LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING VETERANS DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND…
    SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER
    PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH SNOW
    IN THE MOUNTAINS AT OR JUST BELOW PASS LEVELS. AGAIN…BE PREPARED
    FOR WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

    MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGH
    THIS COMING WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE COOLER WEATHER.

    • 00z GFS is realistic tonight, but very close to being incredible…. what else is new it is la-la land. However, it is becoming apparent a ridge will be out in the Pacific from 150-160 W. A block may develop near 160-170W. Very cold air will be just to our north in British Columbia ready and waiting to be tapped(Sounds bad, whoops) What isn’t determined is if a block indeed develops, or do we see a transitory pattern(which would suck!) but depending on where everything lines up in the Pacific we could see a rare November cold snap before Thanksgiving. In my opinion of course….

    • W7ENK says:

      I’d tap that… :mrgreen:

  3. bgb41 says:

    UNBELIEVABLE November day today at Red Mound, Oregon on the Southern Oregon coast. Low temperature was 67 this morning and its currently 84 degrees at 2pm.

    http://i1101.photobucket.com/albums/g427/Brian_Schmit/red.jpg

  4. Hal in Aims says:

    blown forecast here today………..temp has not moved …..stuck at 56………visibility never more than 1/4 mile….less most of the time…still drippy under the trees.

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      Nope…not a blown forecast…

      THE WEAK FRONT HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ONLY LEAVING A BIT
      OF DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE GORGE. AN
      UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA
      WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY…THOUGH
      FOG MAY LOCALLY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.

    • Hal in Aims says:

      no more than posted and poof……..fog went away…….should have posted earlier

  5. Continuing the track the Nor’easter for mid-late week.

    ====== 12z Analysis ======
    Models: Canadian/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/NAM

    *12z Canadian: Tuesday a 1010mb wave develops off the coast of South Carolina. By Wednesday this slowly moves north and intensifies to around 993mb right along the Outer Banks, NC. Wednesday night – Thursday morning peak intensity 976mb occurs off the Virginia/Delaware coast. As it moves north it begins to veer to the northeast sparing the northeast. By Thursday night/Friday morning it has weakened to 983mb moving out in the Atlantic.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

    *12z UKMET: Tuesday night – Wednesday AM a 1006mb wave develops off the North Carolina coast. Wednesday it intensifies to 993mb well off the Virginia coast. Thursday it peaks around 983mb and is around 985mb when it reaches just east of Long Island/Nantucket Thursday night.

    *12z GFS: Tuesday a 1010mb wave develops off the coast of South Carolina(Sound familiar?) By mid-day Wednesday it has moved north now seen off the Virginia coast at 995mb. It is also quite a bit further offshore. Thursday morning it peaks around 988mb just off the coast of New Jersey
    http://meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
    It then slowly weakens throughout the remainder of the night. Thursday night-Friday continues to weaken moving eastward out into the Atlantic.

    *12z ECMWF: Tuesday a 1006mb wave develops off the South Carolina coast. By Wednesday it is seen around 994mb off the Virginia coast. Thursday it deepens to 988mb just off of Long Island/Nantucket.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_072_0000.gif
    Thursday night-Friday it weakens lifting northeast off the coast of Maine.

    *12z NAM: Tuesday night A 1007mb wave develops off the coast of North Carolina. By Wednesday night is has intensified to 984mb well off the Virginia coast. It then deepens further Thursday moving northwestward peaking around 976mb.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_066_0000.gif
    Thursday night-Friday is moves over Long Island/Nantucket around 978mb stalling and slowly weakening throughout Friday.

    *Model initialization is still fairly consistent for a wave of low pressure to develop somewhere off the South Carolina coast. Timing seems to be Tuesday morning – afternoon. Depth isn’t nailed down yet, but models seem to be agreeing with a consensus of 980-984mb. Track is still not fully agreed upon, but is narrowing to somewhere off the Virginia/New Jersey coast up into Long Island, or perhaps 100 miles further offshore just skirting eastern Long Island/Nantucket.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Was a warm day in Eugene yesterday…74F (2 degrees shy of all time monthly record).

    Seasonably cool weather for the second half of this week into the weekend. Mid-upper 20s at night in Willamette Valley, except low-mid 30s in PDX, looks likely to me. Interior SW USA will be colder relative to normal compared to the PacNW.

    Models suggest another trough impacting our region around days 8-10. 6Z GFS operational run had arctic air involved with this…but that is an outlier.

    It looks like some snow will fall at pass elevation but it looks to me that we will not come close to being able to open the ski resorts for the next 10 days (aside from Palmer).

    No windstorms on the horizon.
    Low risk of arctic intrusion/snow in lowlands in next two weeks.

  7. W7ENK says:

    Low of 59F overnight with 0.07″ of precip at my location. I woke up at one point to hear (out my open window) it raining pretty good.

    Unbelievable on most counts!

  8. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Keep your stinking drizzle off me, you damned dirty ridge!

  9. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    This weather is very strange right now. 59 degrees when I left home, and was riding in summer clothes when it starting a fine rain (which isn’t showing up real well on radar) and ended up quite damp, but didn’t mind a bit because it was so warm.

    If someone told me I’d ride most of the way to work in November with wet hands and wouldn’t mind, I’d have never believed it.

  10. bgb41 says:

    11/4/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:79 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft)
    Low: 59 at W7OBH Canby(164 ft) & EW1133 Lake Oswe(341 ft) & Portland/SE Lafa(230 ft) & US30 at Lewis an(50 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:46 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 26 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (67/26 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.53″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.41″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Okay, had a first and awesome day at Klamath Falls. Got here last night around 10:30pm, seeing nothing but stars in the sky. Then today we had very comfy high of 66F with clear to mostly clear conditions.

    Medford had even tied a record high of 73F set back in 1949!

  12. Jeff Raetz says:

    http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of October 2012

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 54.7°F
    Average humidity = 77%
    Average dewpoint = 45.2°F
    Average barometer = 29.992 in.
    Average windspeed = 1.9 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.4 mph
    Average direction = 131° ( SE)
    Rainfall for month = 7.689 in. (Most rain in October on record) (Average is 3.88”)
    Rainfall for year = 41.913 in.
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.030 in on day 15 at time 20:14
    Maximum temperature = 81.2°F on day 01 at time 16:05 (Highest temp ever in October)
    Minimum temperature = 37.9°F on day 08 at time 07:42 (Warmest min temp ever in October)
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 31 at time 11:42
    Minimum humidity = 11% on day 06 at time 16:39
    Maximum dewpoint = 62.1°F on day 15 at time 20:08
    Minimum dewpoint = 14.7°F on day 06 at time 16:39
    Maximum pressure = 30.40 in. on day 25 at time 11:27
    Minimum pressure = 29.55 in. on day 22 at time 06:42
    Maximum windspeed = 13.8 mph from 045°( NE) on day 06 at time 15:20
    Maximum gust speed = 25.3 mph from 045°( NE) on day 03 at time 11:20
    Maximum heat index = 80.6°F on day 01 at time 16:37

    Avg daily max temp :63.4°F
    Avg daily min temp :46.8°F
    Total windrun = 1366.7miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 35.2 on day 23 at time 00:39
    Record daily rain = 1.26” on day 12
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.32” on day 15 at time 18:29
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 68.9 on day 07
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 42.3 on day 23
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 45.9 on day 22
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 63.5 on day 02

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    01.26 in. on day 12
    00.55 in. on day 14
    00.91 in. on day 15
    00.10 in. on day 16
    00.01 in. on day 17
    00.08 in. on day 18
    00.44 in. on day 19
    00.24 in. on day 20
    00.03 in. on day 21
    00.39 in. on day 22
    00.17 in. on day 23
    00.38 in. on day 24
    00.12 in. on day 25
    00.02 in. on day 26
    00.70 in. on day 27
    01.16 in. on day 28
    00.19 in. on day 29
    00.62 in. on day 30
    00.32 in. on day 31

    *Records since October 2008*

  13. alohabb says:

    We really need to get into some freezing temps or I’m gonna have a ish load of moss on my roof again!

  14. chris says:

    65 and cloudy up here in Tacoma, very humid right now, cant wait for the cooler air.

    • lurkyloo says:

      Ick! I hate this weather. Muggy and funky-warm. Anyone else have the bright green mold growing on everything outdoors? Blah! I’m with you, Chris. Bring on the cold weather. Hello November? You there?

    • chris says:

      yeah i do, i also seem to be getting over run by four leave clovers. when will the first freeze come? lol

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      My hot peppers are going gangbusters right now. My Serrano has 20-30 peppers on it and has green shoots everywhere. Normally they would be killed off by frost. Even have a late season volunteer pear tomato that has a couple of fruits on it.

      Moss is very happy on the north shady side of the house.

    • W7ENK says:

      I have sunflowers in full bloom… in November. o_O

      http://i45.tinypic.com/1xz01t.jpg

      And my green beans just won’t stop producing!

      This was Thursday: http://i49.tinypic.com/azap0y.jpg

  15. W7ENK says:

    Sunny and 72 degrees right now in Corvallis! :)

    This does not feel like November…

  16. 71 officially in Salem, record was 68.

  17. paulbeugene says:

    70.4F dpt 62 on my thermometer here in Eugene. All time high for Eugene airport in November is 76F set in 1975. I don’t think we will break that, but this will end up being the second warmest November day in 110 years of records at either Eugene downtown location or at the airport.

    • paulbeugene says:

      Actually, the old station did have a couple days above 73 so we won’t get second place today

  18. W7ENK says:

    No Pete Parsons this year??

  19. bgb41 says:

    ***‎10 nights in a row in the 50s this time of year for the first time in Portland history
    (period of record 1940-2012)

    http://i1101.photobucket.com/albums/g427/Brian_Schmit/warm.jpg

  20. 12z GFS Extracted
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

    12z ECMWF
    Valid: 11/4/12
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    Keep in mind due to the time change all models begin initialization and complete hour earlier.
    6z GFS 3:00 AM
    12z GFS 9:00 AM
    18z GFS 3:00 PM
    00z GFS 9:00 PM

    12z ECMWF 10:56 AM
    00z ECMWF 10:56 PM

  21. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Looks like the time for this blog hasn’t updated to reflect DST’s end…? Unless the commenters are time-traveling…

  22. Looks like the nor’easter that models are forecasting to hit the east coast are somewhat split in the trajectory. The euro showing a tighter path closer to the coast and the gfs showing it a bit further out to sea as it winds up. The good news is that it won’t be anything like Sandy but still looks to bring in some nasty weather.

  23. paulbeugene says:

    What’s the point of a what will winter be like meeting if winter arrives before the meeting itself?
    GFS looking a bit cooler/colder but Euro (the model champ) not cold in long range

  24. bgb41 says:

    11/3/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft)
    Low: 57 at W7OBH Canby(164 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:38 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 27 at BALTZOR RANCH NE (4620 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    BALTZOR RANCH NE (62/27 ) (4620 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.30″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    0.80″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    0.80″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    0.77″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  25. *BoringOregon* says:

    #2

  26. Roman~Snow-Zone-Monmouth, Elv. 223' says:

    FIRST

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