Here are the final stats for our very wet October:
We didn’t make it into the “Top 5″, but very impressive considering NO rain fell the first 1/3rd of the month!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
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Crickets in here, where is everybody?
Still looks as if we are headed to a relatively dry but cool pattern next week with highs in 40s and lows in mid 20s-low 30s. Not much moisture will accompany the colder airmass…so skis stay in the closet for now. The superior Euro 12z has an interesting 240h pattern with strong trough digging S through BC coast….although 850 temps behind it not all that cold.
11/2/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:68 at CW4888 Pendleton(1066 ft)
Low: 54 at Wyeth(97 ft)
Coldest:
High:38 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 16 at CHRISTMAS VALLEY (4360 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
FOSTER FLAT (60/18 ) (5000 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.94″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
0.62″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)
0.62″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
Is it me or is Facebook down? Oh well at least the blog is still here.
facebook is down.. we are all gonna die!
People just went outside to say hi versus posting it.
Models are now showing a likely chance for a noreaster on the East Coast the middle of next week, with 2 to 4 inches in New York City and greater amounts to the north. This is certainly not good news for them.
I’ve been tracking the potential the past 2 days.
====== 00z Analysis ======
Models: Canadian/UKMET/GFS//ECMWF
00z Canadian: November 8th-9th(FCST HR 120-132) A rapidly deepening 973mb low developing off the New England Coast heads west and continues to intensify to around 965mb off the Massachusetts/Maine Coast before tracking due west making landfall around 962-965mb. This is a worst case scenario. Very tight gradient couplet would lead to damaging winds.
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif
Seriously, you have to be kidding me. Although this would be a bit further north of the hardest hit areas with Sandy, this is still real bad news if it came to fruition.
00z UKMET: November 8th-9th(FCST HR 120-144) A roughly 989-995mb low moves northward skirting the Coast from Virginia up to Maine.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
00z GFS: November 8th-9th(FCST HR 120-144) 991mb low moves over Nantucket and the Coast of Rhode Island up to Maine.
http://meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif
00z ECMWF: November 8th-9th(FCST HR 120-144) 987mb low skirts the Coast from Delaware up to Long Island. It then meanders and slowly weakens before ejecting northward out of the area.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_120_0000.gif
Models seem to be agreeing a bit more than there will be a low pressure area or nor’easter to affect the northeastern U.S. late next week. Depth hasn’t been nailed down yet. Hoping the Canadian model depiction is not correct. I would continue to go with the ECMWF at this point.
Interesting Sandy related news in regards to the Bounty ship that sank of the NC coast. Here’s a interview with the captain from August of this year. Skip to about 10:35 of the video and he talks about piloting the ship through hurricanes and rough sea’s. You wonder if he got a litttle bit too confident, but then again in the past he was using a ship with a working motor. Still, the storys he tells are not something I would’ve wanted to go through. Ironically the woman who also did survivesurvive is the great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchild of Fletcher Christian. A pivotal player from Mutiny on the Bounty from what that ship was copied from.
http://gcaptain.com/interview-captain-walbridge-bounty/
Pardon me. did NOT survive
I caught that when I first heard the story — that the woman’s last name was Christian. Very interesting.
Looking at model runs today…looks good for a seasonably cold trough to affect the NW quarter of the lower 48 by about Nov 10-11…with focus of cold air over the Montana, Dakotas, with what appears to be a decent mid-autumn snowstorm for the Great Plains from Dakotas, perhaps Nebraska and points NE from there. I think we have a good chance of getting freezing temps (mid to upper 20s) at night, with frost even in PDX, by middle to latter part of next week. This is not a snow pattern for areas west of the Cascades, with 850mb temps not getting below minus 2-4 degrees C. Snow briefly down to 2000′ but nothing to get skiers excited about early openings.
Looking at model runs over the next two weeks, I am not seeing much of any strong Pacific storms to generate strong winds inland.
Interesting to note that starting 8 days after Hurricane Hazel impacted NE USA in Oct 1954, Salem had eight consecutive mornings below freezing. The 1903 Vagabond hurricane affecting NJ and Donna in 1960, as well as 1938 Long Island Express, were all in September…not worth comparision to this late in the year.
Wasn’t today supposed to be mostly dry?
Interestingly enough, I noticed the same thing on wunderground and a few other websites… Yet! The GFS was calling for moisture to hit around 2-3pm and what do you know its raining.
Yeah, I thought we were only supposed to see spotty light rain or sprinkles. So much for that front falling apart….
Yes,
And it showed up earlier than forecast.
Over a tenth of an inch here and currently raining.
Only 0.11″ here today.
<—- Is a big fan of 18z, specifically 500mb pattern.
Extracted Data shows this nicely
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
5.45″ at KHIO, 9th wettest since 1930.
Must say, I didn’t see this coming. Really thought October would be dry.
Yeah in Brian’s October contest I had my forecast under 0.15″ of precip
I had my first temp in the 40s today since October 27th…
00z ECMWF
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Deep trough
Yeah, GFS is on it too. Looks like as it evolves we develope some cold off shore flow. Maybe get some actual freezing temps!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20121102/12/gfs_namer_168_200_wnd_ht_s.gif
Would be nice… I’m starting to get tired of pineapples.
11/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:70 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
Low: 55 at DW1265 Newport(164 ft)
Coldest:
High:33 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
Low: 23 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
FOSTER FLAT (55/23 ) (5000 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
2.08″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
1.90″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
1.65″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
Interestingly, 2012 actually saw slightly above-average “October Warmth Indexes” in both Portland and The Dalles, based on the 1961-2012 historical data (October Warmth Index = every day with high of 70-74 scores 1 point, every day 75-79 scores 2 points, etc. on up in 5-degree increments)
https://www.facebook.com/notes/karl-bonner-djbonneromics/october-warmth-indexes-1961-2012-for-portland-the-dalles-and-medford/10151210208487767
OK. I’m going to take some heat from this and it is welcome, but my thoughts post Sandy. All the reports about more of these coming due to global warming. I don’t discount it but I also see the other side. A category 1 pushing 2 hurricane going up the east coast in October. Not terribly unusual. It’s still hurricane season. It’s the path that was so unusual. GFS had it taking a right turn. How many left turns would past storms take? A stystem coming down from the north met up with it to create this super storm. How many times in the past did you have 2 storms like these come together? They all pretty much missed just like you missed that one or two numbers in the lottery….but the chances were there. Had this hurricane turned out to sea it would’ve barely made the news like many did not this year. Instead it took a path to the west due to a high situated over Greenland and hooked up with the front pouring in from the north, You had a perfect alignment and track much like we had for the Columbus Day storm. We’ve had many more lows looked poise to do something similar to us in Oregon, but the storm veered off or another weather system steered it differently or the low filled.If Sandy was a Cat 3 or 4 storm I would be more acceptable to a “warming” issue but this was more of a path issue and I have not heard the experts harp on different paths as much as more powerfull or frequent storms. Rising seal levels has been discussed but would this storm 30 years ago been that much less because ice packs are melting?
I feel for all the people back there but the shot in NJ of the amusement park being half way underwater. Half of it was on a pier out over the ocean that got washed over. Do us older folks remember Bay City on the Oregon Coast. Similar locale and similar amusements. Nobody has since rebuilt there in the same way and that’s why some of the younger folks won’t know what I’m talking about. Bottom line on all this. I’m not ready to say this was caused by warming or melting. I’m more focused on the path this storm took rather than the intensity or size. Have to go now. Al Gore is on the other line:) Let the basing begin.
Excellent post. I guess what I find interesting is how much infrastructure, and people live in places that are literally just feet above sea level, and depend upon man made creations, etc to keep them safe. In the grand scheme of things, Mother Nature will do what she wants, and people will continue to build houses, cities, etc in places, and roll the dice that a scenario that just happened wont happen again in their lifetime. If it does, unfortunately many will put the blame unfairly on something besides themselves.
I totally agree. I am getting tired of every single anomalous weather event being attributed to some sort of “conspiracy theory” in which it is man made. That there are anomalous weather events is not anomalous at all. What is more man made is the building and construction on the beaches and waterfronts. If you are going to build on the beach, don’t expect it to last forever…you have better odds building in Enid, Oklahoma…plus cheaper property values.
If this is the worst that the NYC subway system had to endure in 108 years, then it has done very well considering the elevation of the system itself. It certainly is doing better than the World Trade Center did in its 30 or so years of existence. If you want to talk about man made casualties…look no further than 9/11.
In-forking-deed!!
I think it was actually Bay Ocean that you meant. But with that said, you’re spot on! If anyone wants more on that topic there is a lot of info at the Tillamook cheese factory and at Pirates Cove restaurant above Garibaldi. there is also a book that is out there that documents the events. I believe that it’s called “Bay Ocean”.
Nicely stated — totally agree. There are ancient sayings to the effect of “don’t build your house on the sandy land, don’t built it too near the shore”. Yet they will truck in sand and rebuild on those vulnerable spits… it’s kinda like building a house in the Johnson Creek flood plain and then blaming global warming for the damage that comes when the water rises.
I’m all in!
If you build next to water…be prepared to find yourself floating on said water some day!
Yes! People continue to spend their money on homes near water, in forests, etc. then complain about natural disasters. It goes with the territory. You want the beauty and seclusion, you have to accept the risks!
Actually you make a good point about the climate change issue. I heard a climatologist on NPR that said this storm couldn’t be pinned to the overall change that is (and always has been) occurring. He sort of implied that weather is not climate. So bravo! They’re not all running around yelling “See! More evidence of AGW!”
It simply may not be possible to rebuild some of those areas. There are whole swaths of land that have been reclaimed by the sea, sections of those barrier islands (or spits) torn open, in some cases up to a quarter mile wide, through which the Atlantic now flows freely. You just don’t “fix” something like that…
You could also add that the storm hit during high tide on a full moon.
Plenty of hurricanes hit the east coast in the ’50′s before anyone was talking about green house gases.
Sigh.
All of the evidence for (and against) climate change is built on likelyhoods of events, not on single events.
Anybody who says this storm was caused by climate change is wrong.
Anybody who says climate change didn’t cause this storm is wrong.
Think about it.
@chiefWright: Precisely. It’s not possible to definitively say if any one event either was or was not triggered by global warming.
The lesson of Sandy is that it’s the sort of thing that’s going to get more common as the planet warms, and the more it is allowed to warm, the more common such things will get.
Nice contradiction of yourself David.!!
very interesting.
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Could-a-Sandy-type-storm-strike-the-Northwest-176859701.html
Yikes!
Rather than Rainier pop her top for a real doomsday scenario, have Cascadia unzipper a mag 9+ megaquake from Mendocino to Vancouver Island! The Tsunami would pale any storm surge. And it’s not without precident; there’s plenty of quakes that have struck simultaneous with low pressure events.
More ominous, the probability of a superstorm in the PacNW would be pretty hard to estimate. But the probability of Cascadia letting go is better than 20% in the next 40 years, and better than 50% in the next hundred.
5.04 here for Oct.
6.1″ for October here at CoCoRaHS OR-CC-25.
Someone was telling me about a documentary on TLC, A&E or something about how scientists are now trying to manipulate and control the weather? Any know what show that was? Aired last night or so..
7.05″ for my Battle Ground station.
0.38″ to start November.
The NWS November outlook is for below average precipitation in western OR. That was also their prediction for October. Get your ark ready.
I ended up with 7.25″ here.
And it’s STILL raining!!
Now watch, we’ll have some sort of bizarre dry winter!
As long as there’s enough snowpack, a drier winter is hunkydory by me!
That would suck, Mark. Unless the temperatures were below normal, and I mean like 15-20 degrees below normal. That would be okay with me!