1. Halloween: The steady rain is finishing up and it appears we’re moving on to scattered showers from 6pm-10pm. Check the radar here before you head out, if you’re lucky you might totally miss showers in your neighborhood:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/send.php?type=RTX-N0Q-0-24
2. Sandy is Dead: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has issued their last advisory, around 8am our time. It’s just a jumble of showers moving around the northeast without a definable center.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/tcpat3.html
3. Flood Watch is cancelled for the North Coast and Coast Range: Not enough rain to cause any trouble out there and now it’s on to much lighter rain over the next 5+ days.
The Euro is predicting some low snow levels next weekend
The GFS 18Z is predicting an arctic outbreak days 14-16
Bellingham
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBLI
Seattle
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBFI
Portland
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX
I hope this comes up again in tonight’s 00z GFS run.
The GOLU is predicting I get we on my evening walk!
Since our Weather is so ungodly boring I thought I’d look elsewhere. A massive low undergoing strong Cyclogenesis is just beginning to wind up in the southern Gulf of Alaska.
8km Water Vapor Loop shows this nicely.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
This is going to be a monster!
12z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis depicts this low at 972mb currently and projected to deepen to 950mb(28.05 in) Hurricane Force
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg
12z WRF 36km 925mb/SLP model has it bombing to 948mb(27.99 in)
8:00 AM Friday – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012110112/images_d1/slp.27.0000.gif
SLP/10m Surface Wind Gust Model
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012110112/images_d1/wgsfc.27.0000.gif
Large area of 70+kt winds. Not a good time for Offshore Halibut Fishing….
Well, here we are in the first of the “big four” low
elevation theoretical winter weather windows. Of
course nothing usually evolves until December or later but you never know! And at least we are in the zone.
Can’t wait to hear the presenters takes on Nov. 17.
“Windows?” Don’t you mean “months”?
The 1st of November sounds very, very early for snow. Towards the end of the month it’s a different story, of course. I wouldn’t really consider the snow/ice* window for the lowlands to be open until the third week of November.
* A term I prefer to “winter weather,” which almost always means “rain” in the lowlands.
I hate these windows, except maybe the last 2-3 weeks sometimes. Oh & the 1st. couple of weeks too with today as an example.
I know the AMS meeting for the winter prediction/last years overview is sometime in Nov. Has a date been set? Steve usually is posting well in advance. Maybe I missed it.
Saturday November 17th at 10am at OMSI
7.27″ for the month. Amazing considering the rain didn’t start until the 12th.
We’ve got some strong fairly sustained winds all of the sudden here…The street light is wobbling and the house is creaking. Could get interesting in the next hour or so?
10/31/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:76 at CW2049 Imnaha(1978 ft)
Low: 56 at KB7QWZ Garibaldi(10 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & W7APD Keizer(138 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)
Coldest:
High:41 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
Low: 29 at Mazama (4590 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
CW2049 Imnaha (76/43 ) (1978 ft )
BALTZOR RANCH NE (70/37) (4620 ft)
Heaviest Rainfall:
2.62″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
2.32″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
2.31″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
2.08″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
Another mainly dry Halloween evening. 0.19″ for the day which puts me at exactly 7″ for the month. Now onto the next batch of showers.
Yep, my kids were dry. Amazing that it was pretty much dry across the entire metro area from 6-8pm during “prime time”.
9.05″ here as of 1130pm
A real wet Halloween here in the Puget Sound region, but most of that came down between midnight and 9am. Evening had only scattered showers.
Picked up at least another 0.10 inches here over the course of the day. That 6.52 inches up here in Tacoma for the month of October. Looks like the models are pointing to some drying a little until about mid November or so. I can’t do anything out in the yard right now it is just a mud pot out there.
====== 7:12 PM UPDATE ======
IR 2 KM Image
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/2km/Portland/IR2PDX.GIF
LOOP
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=ir&size=2
Good enhancement just offshore with the ULL/cold core. IR shows Cloud Tops cooling significantly. A small, compact comma head seems to be evolving. It may turn very wet and a bit wild later this evening/tonight with this feature.
I do like the low pressure just behind this, so let’s see if the winds picks up along the Coast in a hour or so…
Looks like a good little one brewing up…..what’s your guess for time, after midnight?
It is taking its time.
Must be relentlessly on watch!
National Weather Service Portland or
915 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 31 2012
Short term…satellite imagery reveals a low pressure inside 130w approaching the central Oregon coast this evening. Surface analysis indicates this low is undergoing cyclolysis. However…another embedded vorticity maximum and mini trough axis is swinging northeastward around the base of the larger trough and providing a focus for an area of convection that is just beginning to push onto the south central Oregon coast. Isolated thunderstorms continue to periodically pulse up in this area of showers. Expect this complex of showers to spread northeastward across most of the County Warning Area over the next 1 to 4 hours. Models generally indicate thunder should remain near the coast and over the water so only made minor tweaks to thunder coverage and wording.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
Happy Hallowe’en, folks!
http://i49.tinypic.com/2l9lamb.jpg
Photo credit: Paul Samaras Photography
Scary! Reminds me of the look on my high school algebra II teacher’s face when most of the class just wasn’t getting it!
“YOUR GONE LEARN THIS IF IT KILLS YOU!!”
Check out that line of clouds on the visible satellite. It runs all the way from above Vancouver Island down to Medford!
Nice.
The sun is out in Happy Valley! Ready for the 150 or so trick or treaters that we usually get.
Of course, a lot of them come in from Damascus, Boring, Troutdale, and a faraway place called Corbett…
Backwoods freaks…yes, when you live in a rural area all the kids discuss what town/city they are headed to for Halloween. No one walks down long & dark driveways!
Ya, they don’t walk up my long dark driveway…too many monsters lurking about! (and too much time…cuts down on productivity) Hahaah!
Happy Halloween!
Yeah, bummer…. Ah well I do remember many a time trick-or-treating in the rain…. No extra candy for me!
Hard pressed to find a back edge to this rainfall on radar. Methinks the kiddos are going to have a soggy time collecting candy!
:lol Hope so !
A decent breeze blowing out there, but still mild, and mainly dry! We’ve lucked out the last several years with a dry trick or treat time.