European Model Wins With Sandy

Those of us following weather closely already know this, but here’s a great article from USA TODAY.  The ECMWF (European) forecast model did far better on the initial forecasts for Sandy’s landfall in the USA.  We’re not #1 in computer modeling of our atmosphere anymore.

Read it here:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/

 

13 Responses to European Model Wins With Sandy

  1. The 12z Euro run for Oct. 31 is showing something very tantalizing out around days 8-10….now if we can just get that low to sag a little bit further south!

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    A whopping 2.4 degree change so far today…

    55.1 and a high of 57.5

    I’m sure it will cool down some tonight before midnight however.

    My highest diurnal range this month was 42.6 on the 7th, a low of 37.4, a high of 80.

  3. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The EURO has been dominating the GFS for a few winters here in the PNW. No surprise it nailed Sandy as well… The EURO is the go to for forecast modeling these days.

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Should see a “burst” of wind, and some Stray Albino Donkeys wandering about! (as Rob/Tyler commented on previously)
    I really like bursts of wind! Hahaah!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    254 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 31 2012

    Once the front moves through early this evening…the next issue is
    the wraparound moisture and instability and cold pool aloft
    associated with the parent upper low center off the coast. This
    feature approaches the coast later this afternoon and lifts northeast
    tonight and early Thursday. Precipitation will pick up considerably
    especially in the northwest part of our forecast area from this
    wraparound moisture…while thunderstorms are possible in the coastal waters and along the immediate coast. The thunder may push a bit inland into the coastal mountains and into the southwest Washington interior early Thursday. We should also see a burst of wind as this upper low moves through and winds may approach but probably stay below high wind criteria along the coast.

  5. gidrons says:

    Cliff Mass wrote about this earlier. The Europeans use far more powerful computers that allow for a much greater resolution. They also only run the models twice a day. If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d look up the link.

  6. Yep, indeed it did. ECMWF nailed the track and HWRF nailed the depth. GFS came around, but it along with the NAM/GEM/UKMET were never deep enough. If anything it seems the ECMWF is distancing itself from the GFS, especially after the day 5 forecast time frame.

  7. paulbeugene says:

    GFS on suicide watch. I saw him standing on the bridge earlier today. He needs a supportive hug. Little does he know that every year he brings tons of joy to Pac NW weather fanatics, with the imaginary fantasies of cold snaps and windstorms that happen 10 days away. All is not lost.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Such a bad storm… :(

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