Those of us following weather closely already know this, but here’s a great article from USA TODAY. The ECMWF (European) forecast model did far better on the initial forecasts for Sandy’s landfall in the USA. We’re not #1 in computer modeling of our atmosphere anymore.
Read it here:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/
The 12z Euro run for Oct. 31 is showing something very tantalizing out around days 8-10….now if we can just get that low to sag a little bit further south!
Only 10 days away, you say? Why, that’s practically “in the bag” as far as PNW cold anomalies go! o_O.
:facepalm:
Grain of salt, should be the correct term Erik
haha
A whopping 2.4 degree change so far today…
55.1 and a high of 57.5
I’m sure it will cool down some tonight before midnight however.
My highest diurnal range this month was 42.6 on the 7th, a low of 37.4, a high of 80.
The EURO has been dominating the GFS for a few winters here in the PNW. No surprise it nailed Sandy as well… The EURO is the go to for forecast modeling these days.
Should see a “burst” of wind, and some Stray Albino Donkeys wandering about! (as Rob/Tyler commented on previously)
I really like bursts of wind! Hahaah!
National Weather Service Portland or
254 PM PDT Wednesday Oct 31 2012
Once the front moves through early this evening…the next issue is
the wraparound moisture and instability and cold pool aloft
associated with the parent upper low center off the coast. This
feature approaches the coast later this afternoon and lifts northeast
tonight and early Thursday. Precipitation will pick up considerably
especially in the northwest part of our forecast area from this
wraparound moisture…while thunderstorms are possible in the coastal waters and along the immediate coast. The thunder may push a bit inland into the coastal mountains and into the southwest Washington interior early Thursday. We should also see a burst of wind as this upper low moves through and winds may approach but probably stay below high wind criteria along the coast.
They’re out there!
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning2.jpg
Cliff Mass wrote about this earlier. The Europeans use far more powerful computers that allow for a much greater resolution. They also only run the models twice a day. If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d look up the link.
I looked it up afterall
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/04/us-has-fallen-behind-in-numerical.html
Yep, indeed it did. ECMWF nailed the track and HWRF nailed the depth. GFS came around, but it along with the NAM/GEM/UKMET were never deep enough. If anything it seems the ECMWF is distancing itself from the GFS, especially after the day 5 forecast time frame.
GFS on suicide watch. I saw him standing on the bridge earlier today. He needs a supportive hug. Little does he know that every year he brings tons of joy to Pac NW weather fanatics, with the imaginary fantasies of cold snaps and windstorms that happen 10 days away. All is not lost.
Nicely put, Paul…. Poor lil GFS….
Such a bad storm…