Weekend Looking Drier

The 12z ECMWF and now the 00z GFS are hinting that most of this weekends rain may stay farther north. They are developing a stronger upper-level ridge over the West Coast. Beyond that, good agreement on a colder trough next week. Not sure if it’s just a transitory feature, but we’ll definitely make a swing from warm to cold in the 5-10 day period.

Here’s the 00z GFS ensemble plot of 850mb temps. The operational is on the warm side, but only by a degree or two:

The 00z ECMWF is only partially out, but it shows 500mb heights up around 584dm on Sunday!  Very mild, but the rain would be quite close.

Luckily Daylight Time ends this Saturday night and all weather models/maps will come out an hour earlier through early March.  Ahh, the 00z ECMWF mostly out before my 10pm broadcast; that proves quite useful at times in the winter.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

49 Responses to Weekend Looking Drier

  1. JJ97222 says:

    My kids were watching The Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown last night they noticed the one thing that was missing on that show………… RAIN. My wife had a flat tire just a few short minutes till I fixed it man it is ugly out there! Wet on top of Wet for the trick or treaters tonight but it will be warm. Just checked Texas weather in San Antonio 70 tonight and dry heading there next week 80 all week should get dried out from the tire change. I can still remember the wet trick or treating when I was a kid with the plastic rain gear from the 60′s you would be soaked from sweat just as if you had none on at all. Those were the days full size candy bars!

  2. 12z ECMWF brings back the idea of a colder, deeper trough.

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    Long range GFS seems to head this way too. My hunch is this is only transitory and we return to warm rains again…

  3. bgb41 says:

    ‎***NOVEMBER 2012 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY CONTEST***
    Submit your guesses for this upcoming month on the following form

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/NOV2012/add.php

  4. jakeinthevalley says:

    My friend just left for a 3 month stint to McMurdo Station, Antarctica to do some construction work during their summer season.

    Should be interesting to hear some of his weather reports!

    One thing for sure…he saw his last rain for a while on Sunday.

  5. paulbeugene says:

    12Z GFS looks splitty and (what rhymes with splitty but starts with sh, not pr)

  6. Shocking aerial view of Seaside Heights, NJ after Hurricane Sandy. Yeah you won’t ever see storm surge like this hit the Oregon coast.

  7. gidrons says:

    “Luckily Daylight Time ends this Saturday night…”
    Lucky for meteorologists with 10 pm shows to do, but not lucky for parents with day jobs who like to do stuff outside when they get home.

    • David B. says:

      Lucky for those of us who prefer to have daylight when we awaken in the morning. I call Standard Time the “Real Daylight Savings Time”, since when it comes back, I get daylight at the part of day I want it most.

  8. So the high pressure this weekend probably translates to FOG for the Beaver game? I’ve been to games where you could barely see the field from half way up the stadium (secret weapon for the Beavs) ;)

  9. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Although the low is getting closer to us, it is filling as it does so. What breezes we get tonight won’t be anything significant.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_slp+///3

    Also, it’s nice to see some pass level cool air in a week.

  10. My barometer sure has dropped the past 6 hours. From 29.77 in at midnight now 29.62 in as of 6 AM. Looks like a decent wave developing along the front. Maybe we’ll see 40mph gusts after all late tonight.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

  11. Latest CFS Forecast for Nino3.4

    Neutral to Neutral-Negative appears to be a lock. Weak La-Nina possible?

  12. Sifton says:

    70 Sunday?? How perfect is that?? I’m holdin you to it Mark!!

  13. bgb41 says:

    10/30/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at MALHEUR RVR BLO(3305 ft)
    Low: 59 at LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & EW1133 Lake Oswe(341 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:40 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 30 at Pine Ridge (4220 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    Rome (73/32 ) (4049 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.63″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)
    2.69″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    2.50″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    2.39″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    2.39″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    2.15″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  14. Yeah, I noticed the past 3-4 ECMWF runs showed this cold trough and now the GFS is coming around. Imagine that….

  15. Kyle says:

    Hi. 2.3 inches for our *storm* which is mostly glop but is helpful to get rid of the dry grass we have on our neighbors.

    Too bad the models underperformed but I am not surprised. I am convinced Sandy is altering our weather way over here due to her moving up to Ohio moving the jet stream that normally sags south.

    Prove me wrong scientifically but i believe that would cause weather systems to back up all the over here and bring slow moving systems up to the Latitude the jet will be.

    It sucks though that we are in between high and low pressure again.

  16. longbeachrob says:

    12.51 inches so far for Oct 2012 near Long Beach Wa… that will keep the dust down!

  17. W7ENK says:

    0.65″ of rain today brings my October total up to 7.16″

    Humidity stayed at 99% consistently over the last 24 hours, and today’s diurnal change of 5.0F is the smallest on record for my station.

  18. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I wonder what temps in the 40′s feel like!

    • Kyle says:

      The 1940s? It feels like war and depression.

    • Kyle says:

      And severe meat shortages I forgot to add.

    • W7ENK says:

      Umm, Tyler very clearly specified temp(erature)s… o_O?

    • Ron says:

      Good grief, he’s talking about temperatures. Read before you embarrass yourself . . . again.

    • gidrons says:

      I think Kyle was making a joke

    • Ron says:

      Nope, this is his standard thinking. Check his political outburst. That too was not a joke.

    • W7ENK says:

      Kyle has developmental and psychological issues that he’s supposed to be treated for, but it unfortunately becomes extremely apparent when his condition(s) and medication(s) are being mismanaged. In the past, his rantings have been easy to overlook, but lately he’s been wearing very thin on me as his outbursts have increased in both frequency and magnitude.

      That’s all the more I’m going to say. :(

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