Wettest October In Years; Much More On The Way

We’ve seen about 18 hours of dry weather now, and I don’t expect much rain in the next 24 hours.  But after that the firehose of warm subtropical rain turns back on in the Pacific Northwest.

We are just a few tenths of an inch of rain away having the wettest October since 1997; shouldn’t be hard to reach that by Saturday.  We’ve been in a cool and wet airmass for the last 6 days but that’s about to change.  Through the foreseeable future (the next 7-10 days) an upper level ridge, or at least higher than normal upper level heights, will be centered on or just off the West Coast.  This says warm and wet most of the time.  And models are responding by generating a LOT of rain.

Here’s the 72 hour rain forecast from Saturday to Tuesday afternoon from the 00z WRF-GFS, showing 5″+ just in that period in the Cascades.  Even the driest parts of the valley get maybe 1.50″

And the 12z ECMWF 7 Day rain forecast:

Both models are extremely wet.  You don’t get much detail on ECMWF because it’s a global model, but you get the idea.

We could end up with another 2-3″ rain before the month is up; if so, that would get us up in the 5-7″ range.  So much for a developing drought!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

25 Responses to Wettest October In Years; Much More On The Way

  1. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    Nice snowfall in Joseph this afternoon. Warmer air hasn’t made it there yet.

    http://www.josephoregonweather.com/

  2. Sifton says:

    Jeez, this is a speed acclimation Fall!! From a perfect start of Oct. to purple rain (not so much) to red rain in a roller coaster few weeks.

  3. paulbeugene says:

    3-4 inches of rain in the next 7 days for most Willamette Valley locations…rain will get off to slow start farther south…like Eugene. Not a record breaker but October will go into the books as having been a cold month.
    Overall pattern as we head into first week or two of November…continued variably wet without any windstorms in sight…looks rather mild although could have brief periods of snow in high Cascades beyond day 10.
    For whatever it is worth…CFS suggests mild weather through most of November…wet the first half, relatively dry the second half…but it shows first arctic intrusion west of the Cascades on Dec 1. I do remember the CFS correctly predicting the November arctic outbreak a few years ago…but verification has been the exception…not the rule.

  4. JJ97222 says:

    Beautiful sunshine in Denver today snow melting quickly from last night, soaking up as much as I can before I wear rain gear tomorrow. Back to Texas in a week chasing that sunshine after this coming week of that four letter Portland word. RAIN AND MORE RAIN I tell ya we are in for record amounts.

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Lots of warm frontal rain and drizzle here in BG…I was actually planning on a mostly dry day as the GFS didn’t’ show much moisture.

  6. Hurricane Sandy/Frankenstorm has been a spectacular high profile failure for the america’s very own GFS model. The ECMWF was spot on, kicking the krap out of the GFS. Similarly, the Canadian model had the storm turning into the eastern seaboard. GFS had the storm going out into the middle of the atlantic. No point using the GFS past day 4 or 5. It’s that bad. America needs to put some $ into a new model, or at least declassify whatever model the military is using (you think they use the GFS or NOGAPS?).

  7. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Impressed I am… Second proper rain storm for the PNW this weekend. I do like the heavy rain.

  8. shawnpippin says:

    I’m only at 2.71″ so far out here in Cornelius. Didn’t get hit with as many heavy showers like Portland did over the past 3 days.

  9. bgb41 says:

    10/25/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:63 at CW3067 Eugene( 427 ft)
    Low: 45 at John Day River B(305 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (44/12 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.92″ at BALD KNOB(3630ft)

  10. paulbeugene says:

    If you include old downtown location (which historically was about 15% wetter)…Oct 1882 had 11.63″. During the fall/winter of 1882-83…from Oct through January (four months), more than 50 inches of rain fell. Good thing the west hills were not built up yet…OHSU would have slid down to the bottom of the tram if that happened today.

    • Timmy Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

      WHAAAAAAA…….?? O_O $_$ |_|

      50″ in 4 months…..

    • paulbeugene says:

      Oct 11.63″, Nov 7.11″, Dec 20.14″, Jan 13.71″…then Feb 2.34″, March 6.40″, April 7.88″, May 1.67″….a total of almost 71 inches in 8 months.

    • Justin (Bellingham) says:

      Yep, this included 7.66″ in one day on December 13, 1882. I think most of the area was under water.

    • Sifton says:

      Some of those 1800’s rain & snow records are amazing, but I’ve often pondered their accuracy.

    • Kyle says:

      ]We were just coming out of the mini ice age in the time above.

      Every 500 years we go thru warming and cooling which we were at the peak of it and will slowly slide downwards with a few blips like the summer in March heatwave which is either HARRP or mother nature or both throwing a curve ball.

      Dad was one of the few people who knew enough about earths long term climate back in the 70s that he didn’t join the Ice Age bandawagon which is the same crowd screaming about Global Warming today.

      Yes these same people thought in the 70s we would be seeing ice float down the Hudson today in New York and went all over the press going hysterical about it.

  11. Timmy Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    I can’t wait for the November Pineapple shipment to arrive!

  12. Josh in Sherwood says:

    Pretty impressive considering the first half of the month.

  13. TygrrLilley says:

    SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!! This is the #1 reason I live here!!! <3 <3 <3

  14. W7ENK says:

    Oh goodie… :roll:

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