I’m feeling better forecasting little or no snow in most of the lower elevations this weekend after the 0z & 12z runs.
12Z ECMWF & GFS are almost identical on 850mb temps Saturday through Tuesday, bottoming out around -8 or -9 Monday morning. Mainly or all dry Sunday-Tuesday morning.
The ECMWF has a little wave coming down from the north during the day Sunday for snow showers, but then dry after that.
More cold troughs beyond Tuesday on both models, spring is nowhere in sight.
I like how Brian in Battleground sums it up “not cold enough for snow, but not warm enough to enjoy the outdoors”. I think he means widespread valley snow, but you get the idea.
Here’s the 12z ECMWF 850mb chart showing the coldest air on Monday morning, almost exactly like last night’s run:
Then again Tuesday afternoon:
You can see the next pool of cold air approaching from the west/northwest (the -8 line again) for Wednesday-Thursday. Again, a maritime cold late winter airmass. More snow for the hills, but tough to get it to sea level here in the Valleys.
Here’s the 12z GFS ensemble chart showing 850mb temps, still a LOT of disagreement after Sunday morning! Things could still swing back towards colder:
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
I have to say that the coast Usally does pretty good in a “Onshore” flow pattern snow event
I’m ready for a nice March!
I have not recorded a temperature above 70 in March since 2005. This would be a great year to break that streak!
2009 was my coldest March with my warmest temp for the entire month being 57.6 on the 2nd and 19th.
What I was REALLY hoping for was a second wave of cold in early March followed by a 30-degree jump in high temps in just one week’s time. From 40 to 70!
Oooh, that almost sounds painful!
Don’t lose track of the dinghy! Atmospheric River on the way! Hahaah!
National Weather Service Portland or
902 am PST Tuesday Feb 21 2012
An atmospheric river has developed across the
Pacific and is aimed up north of our area into western Washington. Do
not see much change in the position of features through today into
early tonight…with the highest probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast being across our
northern zones mainly north of the Columbia River.
The atmospheric river/frontal band will sag south into our area later
tonight and Wednesday morning…sweeping south of our area by late
Wednesday. The heaviest rain in our area looks to be late tonight and
Wednesday morning. Fortunately…the quick movement of the front
through our area will limit any flooding potential… though
significant rises are likely on area rivers and streams… and local
urban flooding is possible.
I want an atmosphetic river of frozen precipitation!
atmospheric, not atmosphetic
Yeah, Seattle got that a month ago… you saw what that got us.
Where’s the wet bulb when you need one?
Replaced with Government mandated bulbs…
How many weather geeks does it take to screw-in a wet bulb?
Most likely scenario: This looks like the type of setup where we could easily drop below freezing overnight under a clear sky, and any moisture left on the roadways will likely freeze up, though there won’t be a whole lot. The Coastal mountains will be hard at work gobbling up any showers that do approach from our W-SW, however anything that does manage to cross into the Valley will fall as a mix at best. Under this setup, we’ve seen many times before when the clouds move overhead, they actually serve to warm us up at the surface just barely enough above freezing to keep the bulk of precipitation melted. Areas with any elevation should get snow, sticking above 500 to 1000 feet, but below that in the cities we should only expect a mix, with significantly higher accumulations of strong to severe disappointment! XD
Anything can happen.. 2 weeks ago we had a little dry spell, and all the forcasters said rain wouldnt move in til the next day around 6pm..they were almost 24 hours off, and raining a day ahead of schedule, and when they said we would dry up, we still had 12-18 hrs of precip. Im goin for snow mid day sunday into monday morning.. whatever sticks will stay for most of the day…Havent took my snow tires off yet.. But I do alot of driving in the hills abouve 1800 feet..
Seems like after last March we would deserve some decent conditions in early spring 2012. I am in fear that we are in another period similar to 1953-1957 with cool spring and summers and nearly snow-free winters. We are going into our 3rd year now of this general pattern. I guess its entirely possible we stay in this regime till 2014.
That would SUCK!! >_<
But, I have a sneaking suspicion you're correct, Brian.
I guess we can kiss summertime 100s goodbye for a few.
Who's for a third green tomato summer in a row, huh?!?
Let's hear it, c'mon!! :YAY!:
If we make it past 2012
I don’t know about you BenT , but I’m planning on being around… o_O
Haha, I am too W7ENK.
No more “green tomato summers!” Please!
My sentiments, exactly!
I pretty much agree Mark
It is good to see that many are thinking on the same wavelength across the forums. Outside of today’s warm bath the snowpack will get below 7,800 feet in Washington at least it appears things will build up nicely once again at about 2,500 feet and above for quite some time. The GFS models have been dictating your idea quite well of one system after the other making it’s way through the region for a while. Yes! Not seeing spring weather either here in the next 16 days myself also.
Thanks for posting the EURO models. It gives certainly another perspective of what we get to mostly see which is usually the thoughts from the GFS.
Why am I not surprised? Our weather is like our sports teams. You think something good might happen, but more often than not they disappoint you. Here’s still to hoping something crazy happens.
You must not be a Duck fan. =D
Actually, I think that was a reference to the Fail Blazers?
I am a Ducks fan,haha. But I’m mostly talking about some of the pro teams(Seahawks and Mariners). The Blazers seem to be more trustworthy to win. They all seem to have their bright moments, it’s I’m patterned to not be extremely confident in them.
Hmm… if you find the Fail Blazers more trustworthy (to win?) than most any other team I can think of (regardless of the sport), then you obviously haven’t been watching them play as of late? They might as well quit now and start training for next season already, they’re gonna need it!
They always find that way to get in the playoffs though, even if they are struggling. At least that’s what it is like to me. Despite their struggles this year.
Well, with such a short season already, and their uncanny ability to get STOMPED by just about everyone they go up against in recent games, I seriously doubt the playoffs are in their future for this year…
Anywhoo, we should be discussing weather. Sorry Mark!
One last sports post for the day. Yeah,hopes of contention are looking very bleak lately. But fortunately I think they might still be 8 seed. Not sure though. They’re close.
Welp, I guess that settles it then…
What I like about it is there is no long range run of lousy wet weather. This is gonna be close. Those of us in the hills will see a bit of accumulation. It stays pretty cold (for this time of year) for several days next week.
Bring on spring and 70 degrees!
Only 90 days away Tyler.