Considering there is a Winter Storm Warning out for our area within 9 hours, the weather sure is dead this evening! It’s chilly, a bit breezy, and there are just a few scattered showers roaming around. It’ll stay that way for a few more hours…
Not much has changed the last 24-48 hours model-wise for this upcoming event. Looks like we’re pretty much locked in now. An upper-level shortwave is moving down the B.C. coastline and that should provide the enhancement to the showers for the morning commute. I forecast a Trace to 1″ for the morning, then of course temps well above freezing the rest of the day (until sunset at least). In fact I don’t think tomorrow will be dramatically different than today except for more showers and not as many sunbreaks. Temps should slightly cooler too, just barely getting above 40 degrees in the sunbreaks. Either way, I don’t see any big driving concerns between 9am and sometime after dark.
That’s a good reason I wish the NWS wouldn’t have started the Winter Storm Warning until after dark tomorrow, or at least until late afternoon. It’s going to look a bit silly when we’re out driving around midday on either wet or dry roads, while in the middle of a “Winter Storm”. Not sure what the thinking was on that. But I totally agree that once temps drop again after dark it’ll be easy to get accumulations again.
Then I see about a 24-30 hour window (6pm tomorrow-10pm Thursday) in which we could see widespread sticking snow. It’s showtime! That’s because it’ll be that rare, magical, fantasmic, Disney-Like period when the moisture and cold will be over us at the same time…magical…that time we all stand united as weather geeks, holding hands…fantasies of a big dump of snow…December 2008…February 1995…
Unfortunately I’m forecasting 1-3″ in the lowest elevations for that period. If we get lucky maybe 4″, but I think even that is the highest we would see at PDX. So why such a small amount? I think it’ll be plenty cold enough, but models are just not all that moist. Our RPM shows (above) maybe 2″ snow if we’re lucky, the WRF-GFS barely has that, and the NAM-MM5 has very little as well. I think all of them MIGHT be underestimating the moisture availability, but they’ve done just fine so far (today and this evening), so I don’t see any reason to doubt it for now.
The arctic air comes pouring in Thursday night and Friday; not a huge east wind event by any means. In fact the east wind should be gone by Saturday morning, which could set us up for a really cold low temperature (15-20) IF we get 4″ or more snow on the ground by Thursday night. I figure 1-2″ of that would melt off Friday afternoon. Otherwise maybe just 20-25 degrees without snow cover.
Saturday looks dead, although models now rushing moisture in here Saturday evening. If it starts as snow it won’t last long since flow will be back to onshore…will moisten and warm quickly. Then it’s on to normal March rain next week.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
It is currently smowing in Waldport. Thought you’d like to know.
…..big ol’ fat flakes coming down with a little rain mixed in….time to get out the rib roast for tomorrows snow bbq!!!!…and i ain’t joking on this one!
New post
I can understand the skepticism–after all we have
been through this winter. But this is the “calm
before the storm”. There are similarly lots of
skeptics every time. Even in the calm before the powerful events of December 2008.
I know that the northern interior of Western
Washington is currently having all the fun–even as we
speak.
But UNLIKE in November, I REALLY believe that we WILL
be getting the goods EVENTUALLY. It just may be
slower than originally thought.
Take heart. Mark says 1″-4″ followed by a near record
cold couple of nights. I honestly think that some of
the typically more favored areas could see a little
more. A nice, satisfying winter event treat that will
even stick around for a couple of days.
GREAT way to end our winter season. AND confirm that
real winter weather can and DOES happen in the
lowlands sometimes.
Patience is a virtue.
wonderful post! Thank you! Just waxed up the rails on the radio flyer in anticipation!
also, as if elevation didnt make this hard enough, places like Aberdeen, La Push, and Centralia all have snow on the ground. looks like Longview should be getting a decent shower pretty soon.
ughh, didnt get to bed til 3am, woke up at 7 when the gf woke me up cause it was dumping. she kept her daughter home from school thinking it was gonna start sticking, i told her it shouldnt, but oh well. lucky kid. if tomorrow goes as forecasted, shell have a 2 day school week. ha.
how frustrating. sometimes it sucks living on the valley floor. id call this a “close call”. haha
http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/lewisclark/LCBridge.jpg
It can be brutal! I don’t have any hills close enough to suffer like that though.
why oh why are so many people freaking out and getting the negative vibe about today when NOTHING was supposed to happen today anyway! You guys drive us lurkers nuts! But i guess thats why I continue to lurk!
here here
Gfs shows 1-2 inches tonight for KHIO and then 3-4 inches tomorrow, I hope I am right.
I hope your right too.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_slp+///3
Better look at this PDX still under the gun 3-6″
It looks like that low is in a good place from 1:00 PM Thursday to 4:00 AM Friday…maybe as early as 10:00 AM Thursday. Is this what you are thinking as well?
I am a daily lurker, but with four little peeps, I have not the time to study models, so I study what all you say is going to happen. My three boys are EAGERLY anticipating tomorrow’s storm! My husband however, is eagerly anticipating the Blazer game tonight. My question to you — does he go straight from work in our 10 year old small sedan or does he come home & pick up the Suburban to ensure a safe ride home? He’s not going to be tickled if I insist on getting the big rig only to drive home on wet rainy streets!
Thanks in advance for offering your opinion!!
Just another average 40 degree day with showers lol
Which was expected.
GFS 12z has all snow on Sunday. But it also has a low of 4 degrees Saturday night, so take it for what its worth.
I think the system Sunday may start off as snow in the colder areas, but transition to just rain in the valleys. Things are going to turn warmer and wetter after Sunday for the lowlands.
Can’t argue with that. Looks like the 12z is out of whack
All depends on how quickly easterly flow is going to be kept away, we all know gorge here is relentless…
Heads UP You Weather Geekers
NWS in Seattle is now calling for the artic front to stall and slow its movement south toward PDX. May not get to PDX till later Thursday afternoon. That means more snow for them and less cold air for us till then–therefore no accumulation on valley floors till the cold air arrives–be patient.