Snow or no snow?

Wow folks…I’d have to say this is one of my toughest forecasts…I actually made the forecast at midday (for little to no snow) and then the NWS upgraded to a warning for the metro area.  I have never (in 13 years here) been in a situation where I called for now snow and the NWS actually had a warning up.  This is going to be real interesting.

My reasons?

1.  Not cold enough with cold air coming from the east.  Where the east wind is blowing as of 9:30pm in the Gorge, temperatures are only near 40 degrees!  To get sticking snow with an east wind in Portland, we need about 28-30 degrees as the Corbett Middle School sensor.  Right now it’s 38!

2.  No source of cold air to the east…other than brief overnight cooling in the Columbia Basin, there is no good supply of cold air out there…at least no more than we had with Monday’s non-event that was similar.

3.  Will we get heavy precip?  That’s what can really cause a quick burst of 1-2" even if it’s only 32-34 degrees.  Looks unlikely to me.  All in all it just doesn’t look cold enough and the precip not heavy enough.

Either I or the NWS and at least one other TV forecaster are going to look pretty bad tomorrow, but hey!  I’m going down in flames if possible!  Mark

13 Responses to Snow or no snow?

  1. Ayatt says:

    hey mark,
    Thanks for trying…I watch u guys every morning. Since it didn’t snow this morning,I have heard meteroligists saying we have snow tonight in the metro. Could u please clear all this up?
    I tend not to believe weather forcatsers anymore evr since the storm 2 years ago. No one predicted that one so it was pretty amazing. I love snow.
    Anyways, please try and clear all this up.

  2. Jordan Rendon says:

    In Longview it snowed for at least 2 hours but no significant amount.It was at the valley too..Will snow later??

  3. Sherwood says:

    Mark,
    It looks like you were right, NO SNOW!!
    Snow would have been nice but oh well, maybe later this winter.
    Great job.

  4. Sherwood says:

    Mark,
    It looks like you were right, NO SNOW!!
    Snow would have been nice but oh well, maybe later this winter.
    Great job.

  5. Kirk says:

    Wow
    The outcome of this will determine who I watch to get my weather forecast for the next year!
    Mark, my money’s on you!

  6. dave from rainier oregon. says:

    hey whaether guy i think snow, its about 32 degreess with some frezing fog forming also do u think u can put rainier oregon on the mapp when forecasting snow?because we tend to get snow or frezing rain before portland..
    anyway if we get snow bye mornig ill send you pics…
    thanks dave from rainier oregon…

  7. Jason Margolis says:

    Mark, you are going to be wrong here. You are totally neglecting the power of the storm itself to create cold air and be brought down to the surface. Watch. You will see.

  8. Chris says:

    Mark,
    Although it isn’t quite at freezing temperatures to the east, as the preipitation falls it will cool the air around it. Do you think that it wont cool it enough?

  9. Chris says:

    Mark,
    Although it isn’t quite at freezing temperatures to the east, as the preipitation falls it will cool the air around it. Do you think that it wont cool it enough?

  10. camasmacs says:

    I agree, it was colder on Monday with more east wind.
    Must be global warming!

  11. Steve says:

    I just dislike getting misled by the PDX Weather, with all the Fancy, Higb Speed weather computers, why are they almost always wrong. I personally think it’s mainly ratings Hype. Every station has the “Best” weather computer but yet.

  12. Chris says:

    Mark,
    If you go down in flames I support that, but my 2 preteen daughters are gonna be hunting heads. I prefer my wife to be able to drive to and from work on clear roads, but my girls are mad they might have to go to school tomorrow. If you go down in flames at least it will be before the school kids get to you.
    Chris

  13. Chris says:

    Mark,
    If you are going down at least it it will be for a good preparation not a snow storm out of nowhere without warning. Be Wrong but if you are right at least we will be prepared. I think the only upset people will be the kiddies who think they won’t be in school. Nothing is worse than the anger of a gaggle of 11-17 year olds.

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